USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | 0.13% | 11.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.2% | 18.6 Pips |  |
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| February | 0.32% | 28.8 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) Wed 03:00 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies
Thu 07:30 AM CHF Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Thu 01:30 PM USD PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
What happened lately
The United States is anticipating several significant events related to its economy which could have varied impacts on the USD. Scheduled for Wednesday, high-impact announcements include the CPI Inflation Rate (12-month) and the CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors. These indicators are crucial as they provide insight into the overall price stability and measures inflation without the volatile sectors of food and energy, respectively. They can dictate the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy, particularly if inflation is higher or lower than expected, thereby potentially impacting interest rates. Another event on Wednesday includes the testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which often provides insights into future monetary policy and economic outlook. Additionally, on Thursday, the market will observe the PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors. The Producer Price Index is a critical indicator of wholesale inflation. A sharp change in this index can prompt a reaction from the Federal Reserve and impact the USD.
In Switzerland, the 12-month CPI Inflation Rate is also slated for release on Thursday morning. This indicator is integral as it reflects the cost of living adjustments and potential actions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in response to inflationary pressures. A higher-than-expected inflation rate may prompt the SNB to consider tightening monetary policy, potentially affecting the CHF’s value.
The recent movement of USDCHF, with a 0.13% increase to 0.91260, showcases how currency pairs can be sensitive to anticipated economic reports and interest rate expectations. As the US releases critical inflation data and insights from Jerome Powell, this could lead to USD volatility. Specifically, should the CPI reports show higher inflation, it could bolster market expectations for interest rate hikes, strengthening the USD. Conversely, if inflation data is below expectations, it might weaken the USD as the need for aggressive rate hikes diminishes. Meanwhile, should the Swiss CPI show significant inflationary pressures, it may strengthen the CHF against the USD if the SNB is seen likely to raise rates. Thus, the combination of these data releases from both the US and Switzerland could lead to heightened volatility in the USDCHF pairing, impacting traders’ and investors’ strategies.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Tuesday rose 0.13% to 0.91260. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.91418 with break above could target R2 at 0.91575 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.91077 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.91405 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.91746 |
| R2 | 0.91575 |
| R1 | 0.91418 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.91247 |
| S1 | 0.9109 |
| S2 | 0.90919 |
| S3 | 0.90762 |
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