AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.59% to 0.63543. Week ending 2025-02-14 rose 1.52%. What’s going on.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.59%	37.4 Pips
Week 2025-02-14	1.52%	95.4 Pips	February	2.24%	139.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 05:00 AM Presidents’ Day
Tue 03:30 AM RBA Monetary Policy Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 12:30 AM Labour Force Monthly Employment Change

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic indicators for January present a mixed picture. The Monthly Retail Trade data fell significantly by -0.9%, marking a downturn from a revised figure of 0.7% in December. Conversely, the Initial Unemployment Claims showed improvement, dropping to 213,000 compared to the previous week’s 220,000, reflecting a strengthening labor market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January indicated rising inflationary pressures, with the PPI increasing to 0.4%, climbing from 0.2% the previous month, while the PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors rose to 0.3% from December’s 0% figure. Over a 12-month period, the PPI reached 3.5%, up from 3.3%, and the PPI excluding Food and Energy marked a slight increase to 3.6% from 3.5%. The U.S. Monthly Treasury Budget Statement revealed a deficit increase, widening to -$129 billion from -$87 billion in December. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data indicated an increase, with the overall CPI rising to 3% over a 12-month period and to 0.5% from December to January. The Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 3.3% year-over-year and increased by 0.4% month-on-month from 0.2%.

The AUDUSD currency pair showed a positive trend, rising by 0.59% to 0.63543 on Friday, and recorded a weekly increase of 1.52%, reaching an eight-week high. This appreciation of the Australian Dollar against the U.S. Dollar was bolstered by a combination of domestic and international factors. The upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Monetary Policy Decision could further influence AUDUSD fluctuations, depending on any changes in the cash rate target. Additionally, the release of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and labor market data in Australia may alter market expectations. Given the U.S. economic data indicating rising inflation and a burdened fiscal outlook, alongside favorable employment statistics, traders may assess these elements to predict future central bank policy shifts, impacting currency valuation. This context may lead to an increase in volatility for AUDUSD in the short term, influenced by monetary policy decisions and economic data comparisons between the U.S. and Australia.

From X (Twitter)

Consumer inflation expectations increase in February https://t.co/FLvlbmTFp7

— Market Recap (@forexforum) February 16, 2025

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.59% to 0.64. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-02-14, the pair rose 1.52% or 95.4 pips higher.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.62.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.64 (WR1) with break above could target 0.65 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.62 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.64 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of February, AUDUSD is up by 2.24% or 139.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
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Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Source: Federal Reserve