GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.17% to 1.25846. Week ending 2025-02-14 rose 1.56%. What’s going on.

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.17%	21.1 Pips
Week 2025-02-14	1.56%	193 Pips	February	1.29%	160.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 05:00 AM Presidents’ Day
Tue 07:00 AM Labour Force Survey Employment Change
Wed 07:00 AM Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fri 07:00 AM Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, several economic indicators reported mixed results. The Monthly Retail Trade in January decreased by 0.9%, a significant drop from the previous month’s revised figure of 0.7%, as reported by the Census Bureau. However, initial unemployment claims saw a reduction as they fell to 213K from a revised 220K for the week ending February 8, according to the Department of Labor. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January showed positive growth, with an increase of 0.4% compared to December’s 0.2%, and the PPI excluding food and energy sectors rose 0.3% from 0% in December, both reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On an annual basis, the 12-month PPI increased to 3.5% from 3.3%, and the PPI excluding food and energy rose to 3.6% from 3.5%, indicating inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement worsened, falling to -$129 billion from December’s -$87 billion. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy showed a slight increase to 3.3% annually and a 0.4% monthly rise, with the total CPI increasing to 3% from 2.9% annually, continuing the inflation trend, as detailed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics reported a strengthening GDP with a 0.4% rise in December from 0.1% in November. The quarterly flash estimate showed a year-over-year increase of 1.4% in GDP for Q4, up from 0.9% in Q3, and a 0.1% rise in the three-month figure from 0% in Q3, indicating a slow but steady growth. These positive movements suggest a gradual economic recovery.

The GBPUSD exchange rate increased by 0.17% to 1.25846 on Friday, with a weekly rise of 1.56%, marking an eight-week high for the pound sterling against the US dollar. This appreciation is likely driven by the U.K.’s stronger GDP numbers, which signal economic momentum, contrasted with mixed economic data from the U.S. such as the drop in retail sales and widened treasury deficit. As markets prepare for key upcoming events, including U.K.’s employment change data and CPI releases, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes from the U.S., there might be further volatility. Traders may continue to favor the pound if the positive economic trends persist, potentially maintaining upward pressure on the GBPUSD pair.

From X (Twitter)

GDP grew 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024; services (+0.2%) and construction (+0.5%) both grew while production fell (-0.8%).

Read GDP first quarterly estimate ➡️ https://t.co/jdIMeoFUj8 pic.twitter.com/SVW6diYVcQ

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) February 13, 2025

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.17% to 1.26. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-02-14, the pair rose 1.56% or 193 pips higher.

Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.23.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.27 (WR1) with break above could target 1.28 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.23 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.26 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of February, GBPUSD is up by 1.29% or 160.7 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau
GDP monthly estimate, UK: December 2024 Source: National Statistics
UK trade: December 2024 Source: National Statistics
GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2024 Source: National Statistics
GDP monthly estimate, UK: December 2024 time series Source: National Statistics
UK trade: December 2024 time series Source: National Statistics
Index of Production, UK: December 2024 time series Source: National Statistics
Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Source: Federal Reserve
Public service productivity, quarterly, UK : July to September 2024 Source: National Statistics
Interregional trade in goods and services, UK: 2019 and 2020 Source: National Statistics