NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.91% to 0.57316. Week ending 2025-02-14 rose 1.49%. What’s going on.

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.91%	51.6 Pips
Week 2025-02-14	1.49%	84.2 Pips	February	1.69%	95.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 05:00 AM Presidents’ Day
Wed 01:00 AM RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes

What happened over the week

In the United States, recent economic data reflected mixed signals about the economy. The Monthly Retail Trade in January showed a decline to -0.9%, down from a revised 0.7% in December, as reported by the Census Bureau. However, the labor market displayed resilience with Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropping to 213,000 for the week ending February 8, better than previous figures. Inflationary pressures were evident as shown by the Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose to 0.4% in January from 0.2% in December, while the 12-month PPI was recorded at 3.5%. Core CPI figures also indicated an upward trend, with the Core CPI Inflation Rate increasing to 0.4% in January from 0.2% in December. Despite these inflationary indicators, the overall CPI Inflation Rate was slightly up to 0.5% from 0.4% in December. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Budget deficit widened substantially to -$129 billion in January, compared to -$87 billion the previous month. These figures, sourced from various U.S. institutions such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Labor, showcase the ongoing complexities in the economic landscape.

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Survey of Inflation Expectations showed a decline, with first-quarter expectations falling to 2.06% from 2.12% in the fourth quarter of the previous year. This data suggests a possible easing of inflationary pressures although it remains above the central bank’s target, which could have implications for monetary policy decisions.

The NZDUSD experienced a substantial appreciation, rising 0.91% on Friday to reach 0.57316. Over the week ending February 14, the pair had surged by 1.49%, hitting an 8-week high with gains for the second consecutive week. This upward momentum for the NZD could be attributed to market expectations about the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision, as well as the mixed U.S. economic data which may influence Federal Reserve policies. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes could further impact USD movements, potentially providing more volatility for the NZDUSD pair. As U.S. markets are set to observe Presidents’ Day, reduced trading volumes might also contribute to increased currency pair fluctuations in the near term.

From X (Twitter)

New Zealand's RBNZ Survey of Inflation Expectations for the first quarter fell to 2.06% from 2.12% in the fourth quarter.https://t.co/dONlHxs2xc

— Market Recap (@forexforum) February 16, 2025

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.91% to 0.57. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-02-14, the pair rose 1.49% or 84.2 pips higher.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.56.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.58 (WR1) with break above could target 0.58 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.56 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.57 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of February, NZDUSD is up by 1.69% or 95.2 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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