USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | 0.07% | 9.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.1% | 14 Pips | |
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| February | -2.17% | -315 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM CAD CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
What happened lately
Recently, there have been no major economic news releases affecting the economic landscape in either the United States or Canada. However, upcoming events are slated to bring significant information that may influence economic indicators. For Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is scheduled to be released at 01:30 PM on Tuesday. The CPI is a crucial metric as it measures price changes from the consumer’s perspective and is a key indicator of inflation. A higher-than-expected CPI may lead to speculation about potential monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Canada, possibly impacting economic activities and projections.
In the United States, traders are anticipating the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday at 07:00 PM. The minutes will provide detailed insights into the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, revealing the central bank’s view on the economic conditions and the rationale behind recent rate decisions. Market participants pay close attention to these minutes because they can infer the future path of monetary policy, particularly interest rates, which are critical for investment decisions and economic sentiment.
Regarding the USDCAD currency pair, it saw a slight increase of 0.07% on Monday, moving to 1.41780, despite consolidating with minimal volatility. The upcoming Canadian CPI data could potentially strengthen the Canadian dollar if it results in a higher-than-expected figure, indicating robust inflation pressures that might prompt the Bank of Canada to consider tighter monetary policy. Conversely, if the CPI is lower than expected, it could weaken the CAD, leading to higher USDCAD exchange rates. On the US side, the FOMC minutes might impact the pair by influencing expectations over future interest rate hikes. If the minutes suggest a more hawkish stance by the Fed, the USD could gain strength, potentially driving USDCAD higher. Conversely, a dovish tone might see the USD weaken, impacting USDCAD downward. Overall, traders will have a keen eye on these events, as they will be major determinants of the currency pair’s short-term direction.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Monday rose 0.07% to 1.41780. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.4156 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.42000 or trades above daily pivot 1.4178. Break above could target R1 at 1.42. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.4156 (S1) and daily low of 1.41560 as support levels. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.42000 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.4244 |
| R2 | 1.4222 |
| R1 | 1.42 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.4178 |
| S1 | 1.4156 |
| S2 | 1.4134 |
| S3 | 1.4112 |
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