Audusd rises 0.73% amid mixed economic signals from US and Australia

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.73%	46.6 Pips
Week to-date	0.64%	40.4 Pips
February	2.94%	183 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 10:30 PM AUD RBA Governor Michele Bullock speech

What happened lately

In the United States, several economic indicators have pointed towards a potential slowdown. The week ending on 15 February saw an increase in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims to 219,000 from a previous 213,000, suggesting rising joblessness. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey has seen a sharp decline, dropping to 18.1 points in February from 44.3 points in January, indicating reduced optimism in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, there is a subtle increase in U.S. Building Permits in January to 1.483 million from December’s 1.482 million, but Housing Starts have decreased from 1.515M to 1.366M during the same period, painting a mixed picture for the construction industry.

In Australia, the employment data presents a varied outlook. While part-time employment decreased by 10,100 in January, full-time employment significantly improved, increasing by 54,100 compared to the negative figure of 23,700 in December. Nevertheless, the Labour Force Monthly Employment Change decreased to 44,000 from 56,300 previously. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% in January from 4% in December, suggesting some slack in the labor market, even as the participation rate slightly increased to 67.3%. The Wage Price Index saw a decline for the fourth quarter, easing to 0.7% from 0.8% prior, reflecting slower wage growth which may affect consumer spending and inflation.

The recent news on U.S. and Australian economic data has a multifaceted effect on the AUDUSD currency pair. While Australia’s improvement in full-time employment and participation rate could have a positive impact on the Australian dollar, the increase in unemployment and lower Wage Price Index weighs negatively. On the U.S. side, the growing initial unemployment claims and weakened manufacturing outlook could weaken the U.S. dollar. The mixed signals contributed to a 0.73% rise in AUDUSD to 0.63969 on Thursday. These outcomes are taken into consideration by financial markets as they anticipate the upcoming speech by the RBA Governor Michele Bullock, which could potentially impact market expectations and the currency pair further.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday rose 0.73% to 0.63969. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.64249 with break above could target R2 at 0.64529 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.63273 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.64041 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.64% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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