EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.4% to 1.04591. Week ending 2025-02-21 moved lower by -0.29%. What happened.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.4%	-41.5 Pips
Week 2025-02-21	-0.29%	-30.1 Pips
February	0.59%	61.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM GDP annual rate
Fri 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Fri 01:00 PM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic indicators present a mixed picture. The Index of Consumer Expectations saw a rise to 3.5% in January from 3.3% in December, suggesting some optimism about future economic conditions. However, the Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 64.7 points from 67.8, reflecting growing concerns among consumers. The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness with Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rising to 219K in mid-February from 213K previously. Manufacturing data was also mixed; while the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey plunged to 18.1 points in February from 44.3, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index improved significantly to 5.7 points from -12.6 in January. In the housing sector, Building Permits rose slightly to 1.483 million in January while Housing Starts fell to 1.366 million, indicating potential softening in construction activities.

In the Euro Area, consumer confidence showed slight improvement, with the Consumer Confidence Indicator ticking up to -13.6 points in February from -14.2 in January. Germany, a key player in the eurozone, displayed stable producer prices as the Producer Price Index remained at -0.1% in January month-on-month but weakened on a yearly basis from 0.8% to 0.5%. Importantly, sentiment in Germany improved markedly, with the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rising to 26 points in February from 10.3. The Economic Situation perception also bettered slightly to -88.5 from -90.4, indicating some optimism, possibly due to stabilizing conditions or improved outlook.

The EURUSD exchange rate declined by 0.4% to 1.04591 on Friday, a movement consistent with a weakening trend throughout the week, suffering a 0.29% drop and snapping a two-week rising streak. Given the mixed economic data from the U.S. and marginal improvements in European confidence metrics, the exchange rate may experience fluctuations influenced by upcoming high-impact events such as U.S. GDP figures, German CPI, and HICP data, as well as the U.S. PCE Price Index. Any surprising strengths or weaknesses in these forthcoming reports could potentially lead to increased volatility in the EURUSD pair, altering its current trajectory.

From X (Twitter)

Euro area trade in goods surplus €15.5 bn in December 2024, €16.3 bn surplus for EU https://t.co/oKkeA9HAA7 pic.twitter.com/VwM53ymeGM

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) February 17, 2025

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.4% to 1.05. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-02-21, the pair dropped -0.29% or -30.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.04.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.05 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.05. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.04 or 1.04 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.04 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of February, EURUSD is up by 0.59% or 61.8 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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