NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.41% to 0.57405. Week ending 2025-02-21 rose 0.13%. What happened.

NZDUSD Analysis

Week Ending 2025-02-21

Open

High

Low

Close

0.57

0.58

0.57

Performance

Period

Pct

Chg

Momentum

Friday

-0.41%

-23.8 Pips

Week 2025-02-21

0.13%

7.5 Pips

February

1.85%

104.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM GDP annual rate
Fri 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the University of Michigan reported an increase in the Index of Consumer Expectations to 3.5% in January, up from 3.3% in December. However, the same institution noted a decline in the Index of Consumer Sentiment, which fell to 64.7 points in January from 67.8 points in December. Regarding employment, the Department of Labor stated that initial unemployment claims rose to 219,000 for the week ending on February 15, up from 213,000. The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey displayed a significant drop, decreasing to 18.1 points in February from 44.3 points in January. Concerning the housing market, the Census Bureau reported a slight increase in building permits to 1.483 million in January while housing starts fell to 1.366 million. Conversely, the New York Fed revealed an increase in the Empire State Manufacturing Index to 5.7 points in February from -12.6 points in January.

In New Zealand, Stats NZ indicated an improvement in the trade balance to -7.22 NZD billion in January, up from a revised -7.67 NZD billion in December. Even though imports climbed to 6.68 billion NZD in January, up from 6.62 billion NZD, exports decreased to 6.19 billion NZD from a revised 6.67 billion NZD. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the Official Cash Rate to 3.75% from the previous 4.25%. The country’s Producer Price Index – Output showed a decline, decreasing to -0.1% in the fourth quarter, from 1.5% in the third quarter.

Regarding NZDUSD, the exchange pair fell by 0.41% on Friday, down to 0.57405, despite rising 0.13% during the week ending February 21 and hitting a nine-week high. The New Zealand Dollar’s weakness against the U.S. Dollar is likely attributed to the reduced interest rate by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, combined with weaker export performance. On the U.S. side, while there are declines in consumer sentiment and labor-related indicators like increased unemployment claims, the upcoming U.S. economic data releases, such as the GDP annual rate and the PCE Price Index, may further influence the currency pair. A strong GDP or PCE Price Index could provide more strength to the USD, pressuring NZDUSD downward. Conversely, if these indicators weaken, it might mitigate some of the downside pressure on the NZDUSD.

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: Agriculture export growth narrows goods trade deficit.https://t.co/Yg2LZFXz5n pic.twitter.com/8VHJkuvrwT

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) February 20, 2025

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.41% to 0.57. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-02-21, the pair rose 0.13% or 7.5 pips higher.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.58 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.57. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.57 or 0.57 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.58 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of February, NZDUSD is up by 1.85% or 104.1 pips higher.