Audusd rises 0.03% amid consolidation ahead of key economic data releases

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	0.03%	1.7 Pips
Week to-date	-0.43%	-27.5 Pips
February	2.05%	127.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 12:30 AM AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate

What happened lately

In the United States, the House Price Index for December has shown no change, maintaining a steady growth rate of 0.4% compared to November. This figure, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), indicates stability in the housing market, reflecting balanced demand and supply dynamics. While a steady rate of house price appreciation can be seen as favorable for homeowners and potential sellers, the stagnation might also suggest a cautious approach by investors and homebuyers, potentially due to broader economic conditions or interest rate expectations.

In Australia, the Australian dollar gained slightly against the US dollar, with the currency pair AUDUSD increasing by 0.03% to 0.63428. The pair is observed to be in a consolidation phase, indicating limited volatility and an indecision in market direction. Traders appear to be positioning themselves ahead of significant economic announcements, projecting a cautious market sentiment.

For the Australian dollar, particular attention is directed towards the upcoming release of the Monthly CPI Indicator, scheduled for Wednesday. As a high-impact event, the inflationary data could have significant implications on monetary policy and currency valuation. A higher-than-expected CPI could prompt speculation about interest rate hikes, potentially driving the Australian dollar higher.

Similarly, the US market is preparing for the GDP annual rate announcement on Thursday. This is another high-impact event that could influence the trajectory of USD. A strong GDP growth rate may bolster the US dollar by reinforcing confidence in the economic recovery, while a disappointing figure could spur concerns and weaken the currency.

Given the current scenario, the impact on the AUDUSD will likely depend largely on the results of these economic events. If Australian inflation data is strong relative to market expectations, it could lend support to the Australian dollar, potentially challenging the upper range of the current consolidation. Conversely, a robust US GDP report could underpin the USD, placing downward pressure on AUDUSD. Traders should remain mindful of these developments, as they could dictate short-term movements and potentially instigate a breakout from the present consolidation phase.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Tuesday rose 0.03% to 0.63428. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.63241 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.63564 or trades above daily pivot 0.63403. Break above could target R1 at 0.63589. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.63241 (S1) and daily low of 0.63216 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.63564 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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