USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | 0.04% | 5.3 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.15% | -22.5 Pips |  |
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| February | -3.96% | -614.5 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Thu 11:30 PM JPY Tokyo CPI (Inflation Rate) (12-mth) Thu 11:30 PM JPY Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy (12-mth) Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, the economic landscape reveals a mixed scenario with new economic data from January showing a decline in new-home sales. Specifically, the change in new-home sales dipped significantly to -10.5% from the revised December figure of 8.1% (which was previously reported as 3.6%). This suggests a cooling in the housing market and could indicate that housing demand is weakening, potentially due to high interest rates or consumer uncertainty. Meanwhile, the U.S. House Price Index for December remained unchanged at a 0.4% increase compared to November, according to the FHFA. This stability in house prices may suggest that while sales have slowed, prices have not yet followed suit, potentially due to scarce supply or long-standing price momentum.
Regarding the USDJPY currency pair, the data comes at a time when the pair shows a slight increase of 0.04% to 149.08 on Wednesday, suggesting consolidation in the market. The reduction in U.S. new-home sales could weigh on the dollar if it points towards broader economic weakness, possibly leading to softer economic growth expectations. However, the impact on the USDJPY might also depend on the upcoming high-impact economic events, including U.S. GDP data and Japan’s Tokyo CPI (inflation rate). If the U.S. GDP indicates robust economic growth, it might strengthen the dollar, while Japan’s inflation data could influence the yen’s performance. Overall, the interplay of these elements is likely to maintain volatility and influence movements in the USDJPY pair, requiring careful monitoring of upcoming data releases.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Wednesday rose 0.04% to 149.08. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 148.5 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 149.89 or trades above daily pivot 149.19. While to the downside, the daily low of 148.62 and 148.5 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 149.89 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 151.04 |
| R2 | 150.46 |
| R1 | 149.77 |
| Daily Pivot | 149.19 |
| S1 | 148.5 |
| S2 | 147.92 |
| S3 | 147.23 |