NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -1.08% | -61.5 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -1.92% | -110.3 Pips | |
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| February | -0.16% | -8.9 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened lately
In New Zealand, the ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index experienced a slight increase in February, moving up to 96.6 points from 96 points in January. This reflects a modest improvement in the sentiment of New Zealand consumers. Consumer confidence is an essential indicator as it can signal future consumer spending, which is a significant component of the country’s economic activity.
In the United States, a variety of economic indicators were released. U.S. Pending Home Sales decreased by 4.6% in January, following a revised decline of 4.1% in December, indicating continued challenges in the housing market. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed an increase, with the three-month figure at 2.4% in Q4, slightly above the previous 2.3% in Q3. Moreover, the GDP price index rose to 2.4% from 2.2% in the same period, indicating mild inflationary pressures.
The U.S. Durable Goods Orders display mixed results. While orders excluding transportation remained flat, orders excluding defense rose sharply by 3.5% in January, highlighting strength in certain investment sectors. Overall Durable Goods Orders increased 3.1% in January after a decline in December. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft showed improvement, rising to 0.8% from 0.4%. However, New-Home Sales saw a significant downturn, dropping by 10.5% in January, following a previous positive revision. U.S. initial unemployment claims rose to 242K, suggesting some softening in the labor market.
On Thursday, the NZDUSD decreased by 1.08% to 0.56305. The release of mixed U.S. economic data, with strong durable goods orders supporting the dollar combined with weaker home sales and rising initial unemployment claims, contributed to the fluctuations. Additionally, expectations of upcoming U.S. data, particularly the PCE Price Index release, contribute to uncertainties affecting the USD. Given these factors, the market may continue to experience volatility, influencing traders’ preferences and risk appetite with potential impacts on the NZDUSD pair.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Thursday dropped -1.08% to 0.56305. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.56059 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.55812. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.57010 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.56288 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -1.92%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.57503 |
| R2 | 0.57256 |
| R1 | 0.56781 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.56534 |
| S1 | 0.56059 |
| S2 | 0.55812 |
| S3 | 0.55337 |
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