Usdchf rises 0.56% amid mixed economic signals from the us and switzerland

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.56%	49.7 Pips
Week to-date	0.16%	14.5 Pips
February	-1.27%	-115.8 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, there has been a notable decline in pending home sales for January, which fell to -4.6%, down from a revised -4.1% in December. The flash estimate for the U.S. PCE Price for Q4 showed an increase to 2.4%, up from 2.3% in Q3, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Similarly, the U.S. GDP Price Index saw a rise to 2.4% from 2.2% in the previous quarter. The PCE excluding food and energy prices also rose to 2.7% in Q4 from 2.5%. Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, remained stagnant at 0%, a drop from December’s revised 0.1%. Initial unemployment claims increased significantly to 242K from a revised figure of 220K. However, nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose by 0.8% in January, from 0.4% in December. There was also an impressive surge in durable goods orders excluding defense, which rose by 3.5% in January from a revised -1.8%. Overall, new durable goods orders increased by 3.1%, up from a decrease of 2.2% in December. The annual GDP growth rate in Q4 remained constant at 2.3% compared to Q3. New-home sales exhibited a sharp decline, dropping to -10.5% from a revised 8.1%.

In Switzerland, economic data presents a different picture. GDP growth over the 12-month period in Q4 slowed down to 1.5%, compared to a revised 2% in Q3, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. Seasonally adjusted GDP for Q4 also decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.4% in the preceding quarter. Moreover, the Switzerland ZEW Financial Market Survey in February revealed a considerable decrease, falling to 3.4 points from 17.7 points in January.

The release of economic data from both the U.S. and Switzerland would influence the USDCHF exchange rate. The improvement in several U.S. economic indicators, such as the increase in PCE prices and durable goods orders, can bolster the U.S. dollar. However, mixed signals from the labor market, with rising unemployment claims, might dampen the dollar’s strength. On the other hand, weaker economic performance in Switzerland, indicated by lower GDP growth and a decline in economic sentiment, suggests a weaker Swiss franc. The overall outcome should support the dollar against the Swiss franc, continuing the recent upward motion of USDCHF, which rose by 0.56% to 0.89951 on Thursday.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Thursday rose 0.56% to 0.89951. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.90244 with break above could target R2 at 0.90537 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.89280 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.90055 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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