Forex

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.22% to 1.03740. Week ending 2025-02-28 moved lower by -0.78%. What you need to know.

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.22% to 1.03740. Week ending 2025-02-28 moved lower by -0.78%. What you need to know.
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.22% to 1.03740. Week ending 2025-02-28 moved lower by -0.78%. What you need to know.

EURUSD Analysis

Week Ending 2025-02-28
Open High Low Close
1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04
Performance
Period Pct Chg Momentum
Friday -0.22% -23.3 Pips
Week 2025-02-28 -0.78% -81.9 Pips
February 0.13% 13.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on deposit facility
Fri 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)

What happened over the week

The United States experienced mixed economic indicators in January and the fourth quarter (Q4), according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau. The PCE Price Index remained unchanged monthly but decreased marginally on a 12-month scale. Excluding food and energy, prices in January showed a slight decrease, while Q4 figures indicated a rise. Consumer spending showed a drop, countered by significant growth in personal income driven by nondefense capital goods orders. The GDP growth remained stable on an annual basis, but government-driven spending and fixed investments sustained a steady pace in Q4. Unemployment claims saw an uptick, though the durable goods sector showed promise with increased orders. These shifts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for American consumer demand and economic activity, reflected in durable and capital goods orders, but highlighted by moderating inflation readings.

In Germany, February’s inflation dynamics as per the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) showed stability, with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and CPI inflation rates remaining consistent on a 12-month basis. The CPI inflation rate saw a flash growth estimation, showing a month-on-month rise. Retail trade turnover improved slightly, and unemployment figures showed minimal change. The ifo Business Climate Index hinted at moderate optimism with absorption of minor fluctuations, albeit consumer sentiment as per Gfk remains subdued. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data showed persistent stagnation with the annual and quarterly figures unchanged, highlighting a sluggish performance in terms of economic expansion.

These economic events set a nuanced stage for EURUSD market movements. The U.S. shows signs of steady economic health supported by increased income and robust demands in capital goods despite inflationary pressures mellowing down. Conversely, Germany’s stagnant GDP may weigh on the euro. European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decisions and the anticipation of U.S. labor data in the form of Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Average Hourly Earnings could significantly influence EURUSD exchange rates. As U.S. job growth indicators might bolster the dollar, euro sellers could gain momentum, further informed by ECB’s stance on monetary policy, crucial amid Germany’s steady inflation landscape. Consequently, the mix of economic indicators holds potential impact for EURUSD’s near-term trajectory, shaping its fluctuations based on the upcoming high-impact events scheduled in the economic calendar.

From X (Twitter)

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.22% to 1.04. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-02-28, the pair dropped -0.78% or -81.9 pips lower.

Looking ahead, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.03 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.03 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.05 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.04 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of February, EURUSD is up by 0.13% or 13.8 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R3 1.07
R2 1.06
R1 1.05
Weekly Pivot 1.04
S1 1.03
S2 1.03
S3 1.01

You might also be interested in:

Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
In Q4 2024, GDP declined slightly (-0.1%) and household purchasing power stagnated (+0.0% per consumption unit) Source: INSEE
In February 2025, consumer prices increased by 0.8% year on year Source: INSEE
Household consumption of goods fell back in January 2025 (-0.5% after +0.7% in December 2024) Source: INSEE
In Q4 2024, prices of buildings’ maintenance and improvement works were stable over a quarter and up by 0.9% over a year Source: INSEE
In Q4 2024, services producer prices fell by 0.5% over a quarter and rose by 2.5% over a year Source: INSEE
Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
In December 2024, manufacturing turnover went up slightly (+0.2%) Source: INSEE
In December 2024, services output slowed down (+0.2%) Source: INSEE
In Q4 2024, prices of second-hand dwellings were virtually stable (+0.1%) Source: INSEE
In December 2024, sales volume in trade increased by 0.2% Source: INSEE
In January 2025, the industrial producer prices rose by 0.9% over a month and fell by 1.0% over a year Source: INSEE
In February 2025, household confidence has recovered again Source: INSEE
Gross domestic product: Detailed results on economic output in the 4th quarter of 2024 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings on January 21 and 29, 2025 Source: Federal Reserve
Annual inflation up to 2.5% in the euro area Source: Eurostat

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