GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.19% to 1.25740. Week ending 2025-02-28 moved lower by -0.46%. What happened.

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.19%	-24.5 Pips
Week 2025-02-28	-0.46%	-57.7 Pips
February	1.47%	182.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, economic indicators have shown a mix of stability and growth. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index did not change in January from 0.3% in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index fell from 2.8% to 2.6% over the same month. Meanwhile, personal income saw a significant increase from 0.4% in December to 0.9% in January, potentially boosting household spending power. U.S. Consumer Spending, however, decreased by 0.2% after an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in the previous period. The U.S. PCE Price Index over a 12-month period slightly decreased to 2.5%. On another note, the US GDP annual rate for Q4 held firm at 2.3%, consistent with the previous quarterly report. There was a marginal rise in the Q4 GDP Price Index to 2.4%. Durable goods orders presented a substantial recovery, with a notable rise in new orders by 3.1% for January, following a 2.2% decrease in December. Durables, excluding defense, surged by 3.5%. Data from the Department of Labor indicated that unemployment insurance claims increased to 242,000 during the week ending February 22.

For GBP/USD, the recent developments in the U.S. economy could influence the currency pair’s movement. Despite hitting a 10-week high, GBP/USD dropped by 0.19% to 1.25740 on Friday, ending the week lower by 0.46%. The mixed data from the U.S., including the increased personal income and durable goods orders juxtaposed with a slight dip in consumer spending and stable GDP growth, could lead to uncertainties regarding the future direction of U.S. economic policy. This, along with the upcoming high-impact Nonfarm Payroll and Average Hourly Earnings reports, adds volatility to GBP/USD trading. If these reports show stronger-than-expected figures, the USD might strengthen, leading to further downside pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, if the labor market data disappoints, the GBP could recover some ground.

From X (Twitter)

Retail sales volumes were up by 1.7% in January 2025. following a fall of 0.6% in December 2024 (revised down from a fall of 0.3%).

Sales rebounded strongly following four months of consecutive falls driven by a robust month for food sales.

Read more ➡️ https://t.co/dMlTRVyG4o pic.twitter.com/0mCeQHrdqw

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) February 21, 2025

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.19% to 1.26. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-02-28, the pair dropped -0.46% or -57.7 pips lower.

Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.27 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.26. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.26 or 1.25 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.26 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of February, GBPUSD is up by 1.47% or 182.1 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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