NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-02-28 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.59% | -33.5 Pips |  |
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| Week 2025-02-28 | -2.43% | -139.3 Pips | |
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| February | -0.67% | -37.9 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
What happened over the week
The recent economic data from the United States provided mixed signals for the economy. In January, Personal Income saw a notable rise to 0.9% from 0.4% in December, suggesting a boost in consumer earnings. However, Consumer Spending (PCE) decreased by 0.2%, marking a slowdown from the previous month’s revised growth of 0.8%. This decrease in consumer spending could indicate a reduction in consumer confidence or a reaction to persistent inflationary pressures. The PCE Price Index, which remained at 0.3% in January compared to December, signals ongoing inflation concerns but a slight relief as the 12-month PCE Price Index fell to 2.5% from 2.6%. The GDP Price Index and the PCE excluding food and energy rose in the Q4 flash estimate, indicating persisting inflation in the broader economy.
On the industrial side, U.S. Durable Goods Orders showed positive traction, with new orders rising by 3.1% in January, a stark contrast to the previous month’s decrease of 2.2%. Furthermore, Durable Goods Orders excluding defense surged by 3.5%, reflecting renewed strength in the industrial sector. The Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft also increased to 0.8% from 0.4%. These figures suggest that the manufacturing sector could play a vital role in sustaining economic growth despite headwinds.
In terms of labor market indicators, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims increased to 242,000 in the week ending 22 February, rising from the previous 220,000, pointing to some softening in labor market conditions. However, upcoming reports on Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Average Hourly Earnings will provide further insights into this critical segment of the economy.
The NZDUSD has experienced a significant drop, falling by 0.59% to 0.55970 on Friday and ending a three-week rise with a marked 2.43% decline in the week. The weaker performance can be attributed to the mixed economic signals from the U.S., combined with anticipation of key employment data releases, such as the Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Average Hourly Earnings reports, which hold market-moving potential. Should the U.S. labor data indicate strong employment growth and wage increases, this may support further U.S. dollar strength against the New Zealand dollar, maintaining pressure on the NZDUSD pair. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could provide relief to the NZD, potentially tempering the recent downtrend.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: Agriculture export growth narrows goods trade deficit.https://t.co/Yg2LZFXz5n pic.twitter.com/8VHJkuvrwT
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) February 20, 2025
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.59% to 0.56. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2025-02-28, the pair dropped -2.43% or -139.3 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.55 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.55 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.58 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.56 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of February, NZDUSD is down by -0.67% or -37.9 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.59 |
| R2 | 0.58 |
| R1 | 0.57 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.57 |
| S1 | 0.55 |
| S2 | 0.55 |
| S3 | 0.53 |
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