Audusd remains in consolidation amid strong US and Australian economic data

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.03%	-2 Pips
Week to-date	2.14%	132.5 Pips
March	2.14%	132.5 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 01:30 PM USD Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
Fri 05:30 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened lately

In the United States, the fourth quarter saw improvements as nonfarm business labor productivity grew to 1.5% from the previous quarter’s 1.2%. Similarly, unit labor costs decreased to 2.2% from 3%, reflecting a moderate rise in labor efficiency. The labor market also showed strength, as initial unemployment claims declined to 221,000 from 242,000, indicating fewer people sought unemployment aid. Moreover, new orders for manufactured goods rebounded with a 1.7% increase in January, reversing the declining trend observed in December, which registered a -0.6%. These data suggest robust economic momentum in the U.S. heading into 2023.

In Australia, export growth in January was steady at 1.3% compared to December’s revised 1.2%. The international trade surplus for goods improved significantly to AUD 5,620 million in January from AUD 5,085 million in December. Building activity surged, reflected by a 6.3% increase in building approvals, up from a revised 1.7% in the preceding period. Despite these gains, imports of goods decreased by 0.3% in January. Australia’s quarterly GDP expanded by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, contributing to an annual growth increase of 1.3%, up from 0.8% in the previous quarter, indicating a steady economic recovery.

The recent economic data are critical for the AUDUSD currency pair’s movement. Australia’s stronger economic performance, particularly in GDP growth and trade surplus, provides support for the Australian dollar. However, this must be weighed against the solid U.S. economic indicators, including increased productivity and reduced unemployment claims, which bolster the U.S. dollar. The market may remain in consolidation as traders await significant U.S. data releases like nonfarm payroll employment, average hourly earnings, and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Given the upcoming high-impact U.S. events, short-term movements exceeding economic expectations will likely give an edge to the U.S. dollar, possibly exerting downward pressure on AUDUSD in the days ahead.

Latest from X (Twitter)

Tweets by Australian Bureau of Statistics

What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.03% to 0.63330. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.6326 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.63393 or trades above daily pivot 0.63327. Break above could target R1 at 0.63396. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.6326 (S1) and daily low of 0.63257 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.63257 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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