EURUSD on Friday rose 0.45% to 1.08300. Week ending 2025-03-07 rose 4.39%. What’s going on.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.45%	48.2 Pips
Week 2025-03-07	4.39%	455.3 Pips	March	4.39%	455.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 08:45 AM European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech
Wed 12:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 02:00 PM Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

The United States experienced a mixed week in terms of economic data. The Nonfarm Payrolls for February showed an increase to 151,000 compared to January’s revised figure of 143,000, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, this promising job growth was slightly tempered by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% and a decrease in monthly average hourly earnings growth to 0.3%. On a 12-month basis, hourly earnings grew 4%, showing resilience in wage trends. Moreover, U.S. labor productivity rose to 1.5% for Q4, while unit labor costs decreased to 2.2%. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims also showed positive movement, dropping to 221,000 from a prior 242,000, highlighting a stable labor market. On the trade front, new orders for manufactured goods increased by 1.7% in January, signaling strong production demand.

In the Euro Area, economic growth showed modest improvement. Euro Area GDP for Q4 increased to 0.2% from the previous quarter, and annually, it grew by 1.2%. Employment growth remained stable at 0.1% over the quarter. Retail trade turnover showed a downward shift, both on a monthly and annual basis, declining to -0.3% monthly and 1.5% annually in January. Inflation metrics were mixed; the HICP increased by 0.5% month-on-month in February, but decreased slightly to 2.4% annually. The ECB’s interest rate on main refinancing operations dropped to 2.65%, illustrating a balancing act amid economic performance considerations. Generally, Euro Area’s core inflation indicators showed some easing.

Germany faced contractions with a significant drop in new manufacturing orders by 7% in January; yet, on an annual basis, the decline lessened to -2.9% from previous high rates, giving a hopeful yet cautious outlook for its manufacturing sector.

The EURUSD saw a robust rise by 0.45% on Friday to 1.08300, achieving a remarkable weekly increase of 4.39%, its highest since November 2024. This upsurge signals market optimism towards the Euro even amid mixed economic signals. The high Euro performance could be attributed to relative weaker U.S. data in terms of wages and slight unemployment challenges, while the ECB’s decision to lower the refinancing rate may indicate a supportive landscape for the Euro. Moving forward, upcoming speeches and inflation data releases will be crucial in determining further movement dynamics for the EURUSD pair.

From X (Twitter)

Today we cut our key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.

We are doing this because inflation is on track to settle at around our 2% target, and the economy is facing headwinds.

— European Central Bank (@ecb) March 6, 2025

Payroll employment rises by 151,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 4.1% https://t.co/ZwrVfLviqL #JobsReport #BLSdata

— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) March 7, 2025

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.45% to 1.08. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2025-03-07, the pair rose 4.39% or 455.3 pips higher.

Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.04.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.10 (WR1) with break above could target 1.12 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.04 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.09 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of March, EURUSD is up by 4.39% or 455.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A) Source: European Central Bank
Monetary policy decisions Source: European Central Bank
Volume of retail trade down by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU Source: Eurostat
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2025 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Industrial producer prices up by 0.8% in both the euro area and the EU Source: Eurostat
In January 2025, manufacturing output decreased (‑0.7%) Source: INSEE
Euro area unemployment at 6.2% Source: Eurostat
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Euro area annual inflation down to 2.4% Source: Eurostat
Inflation rate in February 2025 expected to be +2.3% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)