GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.31% to 1.29190. Week ending 2025-03-07 rose 2.74%. What’s going on.

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.31%	39.3 Pips
Week 2025-03-07	2.74%	344.6 Pips	March	2.74%	344.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 02:00 PM Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

In the United States, February witnessed several pivotal economic events as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau. Nonfarm Payroll Employment saw an increase to 151,000, marking an expansion from January’s revised figure of 143,000. Average Hourly Earnings over a month descended marginally to 0.3% in February, compared to a revised 0.4% in January, while the 12-month figure slightly ascended to 4%, showing a minor growth. The unemployment rate saw a rise to 4.1%, a notch up from the 4% in January, signifying modest labor market fluctuations. For Q4, Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity improved to 1.5% from Q3’s 1.2%, suggesting efficiencies in productivity, while Unit Labor Costs decreased to 2.2% from 3%. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped significantly to 221,000 in the first week of March, lessening from the previous 242,000, potentially indicating a steadier labor market. Lastly, new orders for manufactured goods in January grew by a commendable 1.7% from a revised negative 0.6% in December, suggesting recovery and increased manufacturer confidence.

Regarding GBPUSD, the pound sterling demonstrated considerable strength against the US dollar, closing the week with a 2.74% increase at 1.29190, representing a 17-week high and the most substantial weekly rise since January. A variety of economic developments in the United States, including the mixed signals from labor and productivity data, likely influenced market perceptions and the currency pair’s movement. Investors might interpret the rise in the US unemployment rate and decrease in Unit Labor Costs as indicators of economic fluctuations, which could impact the dollar adversely. Against this backdrop, the pound strengthened, benefiting from favorable market conditions and potentially market expectations surrounding upcoming US economic reports on CPI Inflation Rate, PPI excluding Food and Energy, and Consumer Sentiment. These US economic indicators, if showing varying deviations from anticipated figures, could further influence GBPUSD dynamics by altering investor perspectives on US economic stability.

From X (Twitter)

Retail sales volumes were up by 1.7% in January 2025. following a fall of 0.6% in December 2024 (revised down from a fall of 0.3%).

Sales rebounded strongly following four months of consecutive falls driven by a robust month for food sales.

Read more ➡️ https://t.co/dMlTRVyG4o pic.twitter.com/0mCeQHrdqw

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) February 21, 2025

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.31% to 1.29. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2025-03-07, the pair rose 2.74% or 344.6 pips higher.

Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.26.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.30 (WR1) with break above could target 1.32 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.26 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.29 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of March, GBPUSD is up by 2.74% or 344.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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