USDCAD on Friday rose 0.52% to 1.43670. Week ending 2025-03-07 moved lower by -0.67%. What happened.

USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.52%	75 Pips
Week 2025-03-07	-0.67%	-97 Pips
March	-0.67%	-97 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 01:45 PM Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate
Thu 12:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 02:00 PM Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

In the United States, several economic indicators were released for February. Nonfarm Payroll Employment saw an increase to 151K, a rise from the revised January figure of 143K, indicating a modest improvement in employment growth. However, the unemployment rate edged up marginally to 4.1% from 4%. Average hourly earnings showed mixed results, with yearly growth rising to 4% while the monthly rate decreased to 0.3%, suggesting a slight reduction in wage growth momentum. Concurrently, productivity in the nonfarm business sector improved to a 1.5% rate in the fourth quarter, while unit labor costs decreased to 2.2%. Initial unemployment claims also fell to 221K, reflecting a resilient labor market. Additionally, new orders for manufactured goods experienced a positive reversal with a 1.7% increase in January.

In Canada, the economic data reflected somewhat mixed conditions. Average hourly wages increased to 4% in February from 3.7% in January, highlighting a strengthening in wage growth despite a setback in employment data. The labor force’s net employment change dramatically declined to 1.1K from 76K in January, indicating potential challenges in job creation. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.6%, suggesting no immediate change in overall labor market tightness despite the dip in employment gains.

The interplay of these economic statistics impacted the USDCAD exchange rate over the week. The increase in U.S. nonfarm payrolls and certain positive developments in U.S. economic data might have initially supported the USD against the CAD. However, the rise in the U.S. unemployment rate and slowing wage growth partially countered this by adding pressure on the dollar. Concurrently, the Canadian wage increase likely provided some support to the CAD, even amid weaker employment change, leading to USDCAD moving lower by 0.67% over the week. The exchange rate hit a four-week high before ending the week lower, snapping a two-week winning streak. As markets look ahead, upcoming key events such as CPI Inflation Rate from the U.S. and the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate decision may further impact the USDCAD dynamics.

From X (Twitter)

New data from the Labour Force Survey for the month of February 2025 are now available:

➡️Employment rate held steady at 61.1%
➡️Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6%

For more info: https://t.co/PtWaEWANDm pic.twitter.com/DqnktOdcIr

— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) March 7, 2025

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday rose 0.52% to 1.44. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-03-07, the pair dropped -0.67% or -97 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.42.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.45 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.44. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.42 or 1.42 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.42 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, USDCAD is down by -0.67% or -97 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Labour Force Survey, February 2025 Source: Statistics Canada
Labour Force Survey, February 2025 Source: Statistics Canada
Labour Force Survey, February 2025 Source: Statistics Canada
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2025 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau