USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.5% to 0.87920. Week ending 2025-03-07 moved lower by -2.57%. What you need to know.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.5%	-44 Pips
Week 2025-03-07	-2.57%	-232.3 Pips
March	-2.57%	-232.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 02:00 PM Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic indicators released depict a mixed view of the labor market. The Nonfarm Payroll Employment increased to 151,000 in February, a rise from the revised figure for January of 143,000. Although there is growth in employment, average hourly earnings saw a slight decrease on a monthly basis, dropping to 0.3% from the previous 0.4%, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Yearly, the average hourly earnings increased to 4%, slightly above the last figure of 3.9%. Furthermore, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1% from January’s 4%, showing some slack in the labor market. There was an improvement in Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity, which rose to 1.5% in Q4, and Unit Labor Costs fell to 2.2%, suggesting improved efficiency and cost management. Interestingly, initial unemployment insurance claims decreased significantly to 221,000, offering signs of resilience in employment. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods posted an increase of 1.7% in January, reversing a decline of 0.6% in December.

In Switzerland, inflationary pressures appear subdued. The Swiss CPI Inflation Rate on a monthly basis showed an unexpected increase to 0.6% in February from a negative 0.1% in January. Nevertheless, the annual CPI Inflation Rate in February decreased to 0.3% from 0.4% in January, indicating limited inflationary pressure which might prompt cautious economic outlooks regarding Swiss monetary policy in future assessments.

The recent data for USDCHF indicates a decline as the pair dropped by 0.5% to 0.87920, marking the lowest level since December 2024. In the week ending March 7, the pair showed a notable loss of 2.57%, marking a fresh 12-week low. The external data on the U.S. market, specifically the weaker-than-expected earnings growth and the rise in the unemployment rate, are potential drivers for the dollar’s weakness. Furthermore, the recent improvement in Swiss inflation, despite being moderate, may provide some support for the Swiss Franc. With upcoming U.S. data releases, such as the CPI Inflation Rate, PPI excluding Food and Energy, and the Index of Consumer Sentiment, potential market volatility could affect the USDCHF pair drastically based on whether these reports surprise to the upside or downside, particularly given its sensitive resultant positioning in financial markets presently.

From X (Twitter)

Consumer prices increased by 0.6% in February #statistics https://t.co/U2mh0PI5Bw

— BFS | OFS | UST | FSO (@StatDataCH) March 5, 2025

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.5% to 0.88. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2025-03-07, the pair dropped -2.57% or -232.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.87 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.86 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.90 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.88 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, USDCHF is down by -2.57% or -232.3 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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