USDJPY on Friday rose 0.03% to 148.02. Week ending 2025-03-07 moved lower by -1.68%. What you need to know.

USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.03%	4.2 Pips
Week 252025-03-07	-1.68%	-252.7 Pips
March	-1.68%	-252.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 11:50 PM GDP (3-mth)
Wed 12:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 02:00 PM Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

In the United States, economic indicators showed mixed results for the week ending March 9, 2025. Nonfarm Payroll Employment increased in February to 151,000, showing improvement from January’s 143,000. However, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% from 4%, reflecting potential worries for the labor market. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings saw a slowdown in monthly growth, moving down to 0.3% in February from 0.4% in January, although the annual increase showed a slight improvement to 4%. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity rose to 1.5% in Q4, and unit labor costs decreased to 2.2%, indicating some positive productivity growth against cost pressures. The Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 221,000, suggesting fewer layoffs. Also noteworthy, new orders for manufactured goods rose by 1.7% in January, signaling strengthening demand in the manufacturing sector.

In Japan, the unemployment rate climbed slightly to 2.5% in January from 2.4% the previous month. The data reflects a marginal uptick in unemployment, presenting a minor concern for the country’s labor market stability, though overall rates are relatively low.

The USDJPY currency pair experienced volatility, dropping by 1.68% over the week, hitting a five-month low. The mixed U.S. labor market data contributes to investor uncertainty about the strength of the U.S. economy, which can weaken the U.S. dollar against the yen. Traders and investors might find solace in the productivity and manufacturing orders improvements; however, the upcoming economic releases, notably the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), could further influence the pair. These high-impact data points might provide additional insight into the inflationary pressures in the U.S., potentially swaying the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, and thus meriting close attention as they could drive future USDJPY movements. The anticipation of Japan’s GDP report may also add to the exchange rate’s fluctuation.

From social media

🇯🇵 Japan's unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in January from 2.4% in December. https://t.co/hMMZoYEa02

— Market Recap (@forexforum) March 9, 2025

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday rose 0.03% to 148.02. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending ,2025-03-07, the pair dropped -1.68% or -252.7 pips lower. USDJPY hit 5-month low, the lowest level since 2024-10-04.

Looking ahead, USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 146.94.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 146.21 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 144.39 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 151.30 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 146.94 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, USDJPY is down by -1.68% or -252.7 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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