Audusd sees slight increase amid economic developments in australia and the us

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.02%	1.2 Pips
Week to-date	-0.14%	-9.1 Pips
March	1.48%	91.5 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 12:30 PM USD PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 02:00 PM USD Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened lately

In Australia, the Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations showed a reduction from 4.6% in February to 3.6% in March. This data indicates that consumers in Australia are anticipating less inflationary pressure in the near term compared to the previous month. A decrease in inflation expectations generally reflects optimism in financial stability and could influence consumer spending and saving behaviors positively, leading to a potential boost in economic activity.

The economic scenario in the United States exhibits several key changes. For one, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement reported a substantial increase in the deficit, moving to -$307 billion in February from -$129 billion in January. This growing deficit could indicate increased government spending or reduced revenues, which may impact fiscal policy decisions. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate also experienced a decrease to 2.8% over a 12-month period from the previous 3%, and to 0.2% from 0.5% month-on-month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, similarly trended down to 3.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. These reductions suggest a moderating inflation environment, which could ease the pressure on the Federal Reserve to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings to 7.74 million in January, showing optimism in labor market conditions and increased demand for workers.

The effects on the AUDUSD exchange rate can be considered through the lens of these economic indicators. The decrease in U.S. inflation, combined with a significant treasury deficit, might weaken the USD, as investors anticipate a less aggressive interest rate strategy from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, positive consumer sentiment due to lower inflation expectations in Australia could strengthen the AUD. The recent consolidation of the AUDUSD pair, marked by a 0.02% increase to 0.62940, may continue as the market waits for upcoming U.S. economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Index of Consumer Sentiment. Any deviation in these results from market expectations could trigger volatility and influence the direction of the AUDUSD pair.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.02% to 0.62940. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.62906 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.62995 or trades above daily pivot 0.62951. Break above could target R1 at 0.62984. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.62906 (S1) and daily low of 0.62917 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.62995 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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