Gbpusd shows no change as economic data reveals mixed signals in u.s. and u.k.

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0%	0.1 Pips
Week to-date	0.17%	21.6 Pips
March	2.92%	366.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 12:30 PM USD PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 02:00 PM USD Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened lately

In the United States, there has been a noticeable decline in various economic metrics. The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement significantly dropped to a deficit of $307 billion in February from a deficit of $129 billion in January, highlighting increased fiscal pressure. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate marked a decrease, with February’s 12-month rate falling to 2.8% from January’s 3%. Moreover, the primary CPI Inflation Rate also decreased to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January. Excluding food and energy sectors, the 12-month CPI inflation rate slightly fell to 3.1% from 3.3%, and the one-month rate decreased to 0.2% from 0.4%. In contrast, the labor market showed signs of resilience with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicating an increase in job openings, up to 7.74 million in January from December’s 7.508 million.

In the United Kingdom, there was a downturn in retail sales. The BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales recorded a 12-month decrease to 0.9% in February, falling from 2.5% in January. This decline underscores challenges in the retail sector and possibly signals shifts in consumer spending behavior.

The U.S. economic data suggests mixed outcomes, with declining inflation contributing to potential easing of cost pressures, yet a widening fiscal deficit poses a challenge. On the U.K. side, softer retail sales may indicate a deceleration in economic activity. In the forex market, GBPUSD was consolidating around the 1.29430 level on Wednesday with no change. Given the dovish U.S. inflation figures, the prospects of a weaker dollar may influence the GBPUSD pair towards a potential appreciation for the British pound. However, the upcoming high-impact U.S. events, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding food and energy sectors, and the Consumer Sentiment Index could sway market perception towards the USD. These developments add uncertainty to the GBPUSD trajectory, with traders possibly adopting a cautious stance ahead of these announcements.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Wednesday dropped 0% to 1.29430. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.29397 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.29501 or trades above daily pivot 1.29449. Break above could target R1 at 1.29482. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.29397 (S1) and daily low of 1.29416 as support levels. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.29416 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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