USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.07% | 10.7 Pips |  |
||
| Week to-date | 0.21% | 31.4 Pips | |
||
| March | -1.47% | -221.3 Pips |  |
||
Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 02:00 PM USD Index of Consumer Sentiment
What happened lately
In February, the U.S. experienced a range of economic changes reflected by various key indicators. The Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding Food and Energy sectors for one month declined to -0.1%, down from a more robust 0.5% in January, as stated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This trend was also observed over a 12-month period, where the PPI, excluding Food and Energy sectors, dropped to 3.4% from a previous 3.8%. Additionally, the overall PPI was flat at 0% in February, down significantly from January’s revised figure of 0.6%. This information suggests a slowdown in producer price growth, potentially indicating weaker demand or increased efficiency.
Furthermore, the U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims saw a slight decrease, reaching 220,000 in the week ending 08 March, from 221,000, signaling marginal improvements in the labor market. However, the U.S. Monthly Treasury Budget Statement revealed a concerning decline to -$307 billion in February, compared to -$129 billion in January, highlighting a substantial increase in the fiscal deficit. Concurrently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate for the 12-month period fell to 2.8% in February, from 3% in January, with the monthly CPI Inflation Rate reducing to 0.2% from 0.5%. This trend was also mirrored in the CPI excluding food and energy sectors, which fell to 0.2% for one month from 0.4% in January, and to 3.1% for the 12-month period from 3.3%. These CPI figures suggest a deceleration in consumer price growth, which could be attributed to lower demand or cost management.
The mixed economic data presents a complex outlook for USDJPY trading. The decline in inflation rates and producer prices could suggest a weakening U.S. economic activity, which might ordinarily pressure the U.S. dollar downward. However, the slight improvement in unemployment claims can offer some support to the currency. In this context, USDJPY rose 0.07% to 148.30, indicating market consolidation and potentially reflecting traders’ mixed sentiment about future U.S. economic strength. Market participants may be aligning their strategies with upcoming data and events, such as the USD Index of Consumer Sentiment release, which could offer further insights and direct USDJPY movements.
Latest from X (Twitter)
What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Thursday rose 0.07% to 148.30. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 148.13 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 148.38 or trades above daily pivot 148.25. While to the downside, the daily low of 148.08 and 148.13 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 148.38 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 148.72 |
| R2 | 148.55 |
| R1 | 148.43 |
| Daily Pivot | 148.25 |
| S1 | 148.13 |
| S2 | 147.96 |
| S3 | 147.84 |