USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | -0.05% | -4.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.02% | -1.6 Pips | |
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| March | -1.99% | -179.3 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 06:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections – 1st year Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections – 2nd year Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections – Longer Wed 06:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference
What happened lately
The recent data for the USDCHF shows a slight dip of -0.05% to 0.88420 on Monday, indicating a period of consolidation. No major economic news was reported, maintaining a state of observation for traders and analysts in anticipation of key monetary events. The focus is heavily placed on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions scheduled for Wednesday. As the USDCHF pair is in consolidation, the market is closely eyeing upcoming policy announcements for cues on future price movements.
In the United States, a series of significant economic events are on the horizon. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its Interest Rate Decision, a critical event that will dictate the short-term trajectory of interest rates. Accompanying this decision will be the FOMC Monetary Policy Statement, offering insights into the central bank’s economic outlook. Additionally, the release of FOMC Economic Projections will provide further clarity on potential shifts in fiscal policy. Interest Rate Projections for the first and second years, along with the longer-term outlook, will also be a focal point. These projections will influence financial markets by offering guidance on how policymakers perceive economic conditions and inflationary pressures. Lastly, the FOMC Press Conference will serve as a platform for Federal Reserve officials to elucidate their strategies and action plans.
The anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s announcements is likely to create short-term volatility in the USDCHF pair leading up to and following the events. Should the Fed indicate a more hawkish stance, signifying potential interest rate hikes, this could strengthen the US dollar, thereby exerting upward pressure on the USDCHF exchange rate. Conversely, a dovish tone suggesting reduced urgency for rate increases might lead to a weakening of the dollar, causing the USDCHF to dip. Traders should remain vigilant as even subtle changes in language and projections during the press conference can trigger significant market responses. Overall, the USDCHF will largely hinge on the outcomes of these key monetary policy communications.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Monday dropped -0.05% to 0.88420. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.88351 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.88530 or trades above daily pivot 0.88441. Break above could target R1 at 0.88509. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.88351 (S1) and daily low of 0.88372 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.88372 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.88667 |
| R2 | 0.88599 |
| R1 | 0.88509 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.88441 |
| S1 | 0.88351 |
| S2 | 0.88283 |
| S3 | 0.88193 |
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