USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | 0.06% | 9.2 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.05% | 7.5 Pips | |
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| March | -1.24% | -186 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 03:00 AM JPY Bank of Japan Short-Term Policy Interest Rate Wed 03:00 AM JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement Wed 06:30 AM JPY Bank of Japan Press Conference
Wed 06:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections – 1st year Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections – 2nd year Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections Wed 06:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections – Longer Wed 06:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference
What happened lately
Japan is in focus this week as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) prepares for several significant announcements. On Wednesday, the BOJ will release its Short-Term Policy Interest Rate and the Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 AM, followed by a press conference at 06:30 AM. These events are categorized as high impact, and markets will be keenly watching for any changes in interest rates or shifts in BOJ’s monetary policy stance. The BOJ has maintained a loose monetary policy for an extended period to combat deflation and stimulate the economy, and any deviation from this strategy could have substantial implications for the yen and global markets. Traders will be scrutinizing BOJ’s commentary for clues about its future policy direction.
In the United States, a significant array of economic events are also scheduled for Wednesday, framed around the Federal Reserve. At 06:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will announce its Interest Rate Decision, alongside the FOMC Monetary Policy Statement and projections outlining economic expectations and future interest rate paths. Following these announcements, the Fed will host a press conference at 06:30 PM. As the US economy grapples with growth and inflation challenges, the market is on edge to discern if the Fed plans further interest rate hikes or adjustments in its policy outlook. Speculation about the Fed’s future moves could influence economic sentiment and financial markets globally.
The impact of these events on the USDJPY currency pair could be profound. As of Monday, the pair has undergone a slight increase of 0.06% to trade at 148.70 amidst a consolidative phase. The upcoming announcements from both the BOJ and the Federal Reserve are highly probable catalysts for the pair. If the BOJ maintains its dovish stance while the Fed signals a hawkish policy pivot, we might see the yen weaken against a potentially stronger dollar, pushing USDJPY higher. Conversely, if the BOJ indicates a shift towards tightening and the Fed suggests a pause in rate hikes, the yen may appreciate, leading to a potential decline in USDJPY. Therefore, the trajectory of USDJPY largely hinges on the comparative monetary policy outlooks emerging from Japan and the US.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Monday rose 0.06% to 148.70. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 148.51 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 148.79 or trades above daily pivot 148.65. While to the downside, the daily low of 148.46 and 148.51 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 148.79 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 149.18 |
| R2 | 148.99 |
| R1 | 148.84 |
| Daily Pivot | 148.65 |
| S1 | 148.51 |
| S2 | 148.31 |
| S3 | 148.17 |