AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.46% to 0.62690. Week ending 2025-03-21 moved lower by -0.85%. What happened.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.46%	-28.8 Pips
Week 2025-03-21	-0.85%	-54 Pips
March	1.07%	66.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 AM Monthly CPI Indicator (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Fri 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, recent economic indicators reveal a mixed picture. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims marginally increased to 223K, suggesting slight deterioration in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed reported a drop in the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from 18.1 to 12.5, indicating softer manufacturing activity. Interest rate projections for the first year were revised down to 3.4% from 3.9%, and in the second year to 3.1% from 3.4%. The Federal Reserve maintained the Federal Funds Rate at 4.5%, with long-term interest projections unchanged at 3%. These adjustments illustrate a cautious outlook on the U.S. economic growth trajectory with potential implications for monetary policy.

Australia’s latest economic data presents concerns. Notably, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in February, but the employment situation weakened as total employment contracted by 52.8K, following a significant increase of 44K in January. This decline includes a substantial drop in full-time employment by 35.7K, a reversal from the 54.1K increase in January. Additionally, the participation rate fell to 66.8% from 67.3%, reflective of a reduction in labor market engagement. These figures indicate a slowdown in Australia’s labor market, potentially posing challenges for economic recovery and impacting consumer spending.

The AUDUSD exchange rate has been under pressure, with the pair declining by 0.46% on Friday and 0.85% over the week. Despite reaching a three-week high, it concluded the week at a two-week low. These movements are affected by differing economic dynamics between the U.S. and Australia. Weaker Australian employment data can exert downward pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD), especially as expectations of a dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia may contrast with the Federal Reserve’s approach. The upcoming release of the Australian CPI Indicator could further impact sentiment, particularly if inflationary pressures diverge from expectations. On the U.S. side, important data releases like the GDP annual rate and PCE Price Index will be critical in shaping market expectations for future U.S. economic policy moves, thereby influencing the USD’s strength in the forex markets. Such divergent economic trajectories and data releases are likely to keep AUDUSD on a cautious and volatile path.

From X (Twitter)

'With employment falling by 53,000 people and the number of unemployed falling by 11,000 people, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 per cent,' Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics

For more, see https://t.co/oLZ6XNospu pic.twitter.com/4k58QX9WyP

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) March 20, 2025

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.46% to 0.63. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-03-21, the pair dropped -0.85% or -54 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.64 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.63. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.63 or 0.62 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.63 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, AUDUSD is up by 1.07% or 66.5 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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