GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.44% to 1.29110. Week ending 2025-03-21 moved lower by -0.16%. What happened.

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.44%	-57.4 Pips
Week 2025-03-21	-0.16%	-21 Pips
March	2.68%	336.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 PM Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech
Wed 07:00 AM Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Fri 07:00 AM GDP (3-mth)
Fri 07:00 AM Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)
Fri 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United Kingdom, several key economic indicators were reported for the week ending March 23, 2025. The U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence saw marginal improvement in March, edging up to -19 points from February’s -20. The Bank of England kept its interest rate steady at 4.5%, maintaining its position in light of ongoing economic conditions. Employment data displayed mixed outcomes; while the U.K. Labour Force Survey Employment Change increased significantly to 144K in January from December’s 107K, the U.K. Claimant Count Rate also rose to 4.7% in February from January’s 4.6%. On the earnings front, the U.K. Average Earnings including Bonus decreased slightly to 5.8% in the three months to January, compared to a revised 6.1% in December, while excluding bonuses, earnings held steady at 5.9%. The U.K. Claimant Count Change showed a significant rise to 44.2K in February from 22K in January, reflecting challenges in the labor market.

In the United States, economic data revealed concerns about economic momentum. The Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims climbed slightly to 223K for the week ending March 15, from a previous revised figure of 221K. The U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook from the Philadelphia Fed fell to 12.5 points in March, down from 18.1 points in February, indicating waning confidence in the manufacturing sector. Interest rate projections presented by the Federal Reserve demonstrated softer outlooks, with the 1st and 2nd-year projections dropping to 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, from prior estimates of 3.9% and 3.4%. However, the Fed’s longer-term interest rate projection remained unchanged at 3%, alongside the stable Federal Funds Rate at 4.5%.

The GBPUSD currency pair was affected by these mixed economic signals, finishing the week down by 0.16% at 1.29110, having initially reached a 19-week high. The combination of stable U.K. monetary policy, coupled with underlying economic concerns reflected in employment and earning statistics, was seemingly overshadowed by broader USD strength and market sentiment concerning U.S. economic prospects. The U.S. data indicating weak manufacturing performance and a lower forward interest rate projection prompted a cautious stance among traders, contributing to the slight decline in GBPUSD. Furthermore, upcoming events, particularly speeches by Bank of England officials and significant economic releases such as CPI, GDP, and retail sales, will likely shape expectations and drive further movements in this currency pair.

From X (Twitter)

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.5%.

Find out more: https://t.co/ER1qk4ne1c pic.twitter.com/w7Zz2RU9Nr

— Bank of England (@bankofengland) March 20, 2025

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.44% to 1.29. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-03-21, the pair dropped -0.16% or -21 pips lower.

Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.30 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.29. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.29 or 1.29 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.29 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, GBPUSD is up by 2.68% or 336.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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