NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.39% to 0.57310. Week ending 2025-03-21 moved lower by -0.23%. What happened.

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.39%	-22.2 Pips
Week 2025-03-21	-0.23%	-13 Pips
March	2.38%	133.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Fri 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In New Zealand, February’s economic figures showed an increase in exports, reaching $6.74 billion compared to the revised January figure of $6.19 billion and the initial figure of $6.06 billion, according to Stats NZ. Concurrently, imports decreased to $6.23 billion from the revised January number of $6.68 billion. This shift contributed to an improvement in New Zealand’s 12-month trade balance, which rose to -6.51 billion NZD from a previously revised figure of -7.34 billion NZD in January. Additionally, New Zealand’s GDP for the fourth quarter showed a positive growth of 0.7%, a significant rebound from the revised -1.1% in the third quarter, though the annual GDP fell by -1.1%, down from -0.3% the previous quarter.

In the United States, labor market indicators, as reported by the Department of Labor, exhibited a rise in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims to 223K from the revised 221K. Moreover, the U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey saw a decline in March to 12.5 points, down from 18.1 points in February, as reported by the Philadelphia Fed. Interest rate projections were adjusted with the Federal Reserve indicating the first-year rate would be below forecast at 3.4%, down from 3.9%, and the second year at 3.1%, previously 3.4%. The longer-term rate remained stable at 3%. Meanwhile, the Federal Funds Rate decision remained unchanged at 4.5%.

The NZDUSD currency pair experienced a decline of 0.39% on Friday, closing at 0.57310. Over the week, it decreased by 0.23% despite hitting a 14-week high, ending two weeks of consecutive gains. The updates in New Zealand’s trade surplus and GDP growth were countered by the complexities of the U.S. economic indicators which, despite stable interest rates, showed mixed signals with declining unemployment claims and a drop in manufacturing outlook. The unchanged U.S. Federal Funds Rate and revised future rate projections likely contributed to a dampened outlook on USD strength. Consequently, these mixed economic signals led to a cautious market sentiment, resulting in the softer performance of NZDUSD.

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: GDP increases 0.7 percent in the December 2024 quarter.https://t.co/iRXPtfg0pI pic.twitter.com/qdtTNmPldp

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) March 19, 2025

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.39% to 0.57. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-03-21, the pair dropped -0.23% or -13 pips lower.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.57.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.58 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.58. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.57 or 0.57 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.57 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, NZDUSD is up by 2.38% or 133.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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