USDCHF on Friday rose 0.15% to 0.88250. Week ending 2025-03-21 moved lower by -0.24%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.15%	13 Pips
Week 2025-03-21	-0.24%	-21.6 Pips
March	-2.21%	-199.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Fri 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, initial unemployment claims showed a slight increase to 223,000 from the previous figure of 221,000, indicating a modest softening in the labor market. Moreover, the Philadelphia Fed reported a decline in the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, reflecting a decrease from 18.1 to 12.5 points, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing activities. Interest rate projections also revealed a downward trend, with rates for the first year dropping to 3.4% from 3.9%, and second-year projections decreasing to 3.1% from 3.4%. The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.5% showcases a steady approach amid these economic indicators.

In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank decided to cut its policy interest rate to 0.25% from a previous 0.5%. This significant decision by the SNB demonstrates an attempt to stimulate economic growth by encouraging borrowing and investment. The reduction in interest rates places Switzerland in a more expansive monetary policy environment.

The USDCHF currency pair experienced volatile movements throughout the week, reflecting the complex interplay of economic news from the United States and Switzerland. Despite an increase in the closing price of USDCHF by 0.15% on Friday, the pair ended the week lower by 0.24%. The decrease in U.S. interest rate projections suggests a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially weakening the dollar. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc finds support from the SNB’s rate cut decision aiming to bolster the domestic economy. Upcoming economic data, such as the U.S. GDP annual rate and PCE Price Index, could further influence the USDCHF pair, potentially leading to increased volatility depending on how these indicators affect expectations surrounding U.S. economic resilience and inflation pressures.

From X (Twitter)

Monetary policy assessment: The press release and introductory remarks delivered by the Governing Board members at the news conference are available on our website (in English, German, French and Italian):https://t.co/U22xZxbUNE pic.twitter.com/T6AwaRhNPV

— Swiss National Bank (@SNB_BNS) March 20, 2025

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.15% to 0.88. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-03-21, the pair dropped -0.24% or -21.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.88.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.89 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.88. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.88 or 0.88 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.88 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, USDCHF is down by -2.21% or -199.3 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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