Audusd consolidates as US and Australian economic indicators show mixed signals

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.06%	-3.7 Pips
Week to-date	0.19%	11.7 Pips
March	1.09%	67.9 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 12:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

The United States witnessed several changes across different economic indicators. Notably, U.S. Pending Home Sales experienced a positive turn, increasing by 2% in February, an improvement from the previous month’s 4.6% decline. The GDP Price Index showed a slight decrease to 2.3% in Q4 from 2.4% in Q3, indicating minor deflationary pressures. Similarly, the PCE excluding food and energy prices slightly decreased to 2.6% from 2.7%, while the PCE Price continued to hold steady at 2.4%. The GDP annual rate showed a modest increase, moving from 2.3% in Q3 to 2.4% in Q4. Initial unemployment claims slightly dropped to 224K for the week ending March 22nd. On the downside, U.S. durable goods orders fell by 0.9% in February after a previously reported increase, with capital goods orders excluding aircraft also marking a decrease to -0.3%. However, orders for durable goods excluding transportation saw a 0.7% increase, suggesting sector-specific resilience.

In Australia, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator showed a decrease to 2.4% in February from 2.5% in January, potentially signaling easing inflationary pressures in the country’s economy.

The recent developments in both the U.S. and Australian economies suggest a mixed outlook for the AUDUSD exchange rate. The marginal improvements in certain U.S. economic indicators, such as GDP growth and pending home sales, could bolster the U.S. dollar. However, the slip in durable goods orders and capital spending could offset this strength, as these declines point to potential slowdowns in industrial activity. Meanwhile, Australia’s softer inflation rate may hint at a need for a continued accommodative monetary policy, potentially weakening the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Thus, these factors combined with the upcoming U.S. data releases might keep the AUDUSD pair in a consolidation phase, reflecting the tug-of-war between the economic developments of the two countries.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.06% to 0.62870. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.62778 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.62977 or trades above daily pivot 0.62877. Break above could target R1 at 0.6297. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.62778 (S1) and daily low of 0.62785 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.62785 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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