NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.07% | -3.8 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.11% | -6.5 Pips | |
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| March | 1.99% | 111.7 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 12:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened lately
New Zealand’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index demonstrated a decline in March, settling at 93.2 points, down from 96.6 points in February. This decline in consumer confidence suggests greater consumer caution, which might lead to reduced spending and investment, potentially impacting the country’s economic activity and growth negatively. A reduction in consumer confidence can signal concerns over economic conditions, affecting businesses and potentially prompting a re-evaluation of economic strategies by policymakers.
In the United States, several economic indicators provide a mixed picture of the economy. U.S. Pending Home Sales rebounded in February with a 2% increase, following a January decline of 4.6%. This uptick indicates a recovery in the housing market and could stimulate further spending in related sectors. Meanwhile, the U.S. GDP annual rate showed an improvement, rising to 2.4% in Q4 2024 from 2.3% in Q3, signaling a modest economic expansion. The GDP Price Index slightly decreased to 2.3% from 2.4%, reflecting stable economic prices. Similarly, the PCE excluding food and energy fell to 2.6% from 2.7%, with the broader PCE Price for the 3-month period also decreased to 2.3% from 2.4%, illustrating steady consumer price levels.
The labor market reflected slight improvement with initial unemployment claims dropping to 224,000. However, February marked a decline in durable goods orders, which fell by 0.9%, following a revised increase of 3.2% in January. This downturn included decreases in both nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and defense-excluded durable goods orders, suggestive of potential weakness in industrial demand. Nonetheless, durable goods orders excluding transportation registered a 0.7% increase, highlighting selective sector resilience.
The dynamics between New Zealand’s declining consumer confidence and the mixed economic signals from the United States contribute to the NZDUSD currency pair’s performance. With the NZDUSD closing at 0.57200, showing a drop of 0.07%, indicative of consolidation, the contrasting economic indicators likely weigh on the New Zealand dollar. Continued U.S. economic improvements amid stable price levels may bolster USD’s strength, creating downward pressure on NZDUSD. The upcoming release of the U.S. PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, stands as a crucial event that could sway market perceptions of U.S. economic stability, potentially impacting the currency pair further.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.07% to 0.57200. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.57115 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.57279 or trades above daily pivot 0.57197. Break above could target R1 at 0.57282. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.57115 (S1) and daily low of 0.57112 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.57112 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.57449 |
| R2 | 0.57364 |
| R1 | 0.57282 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.57197 |
| S1 | 0.57115 |
| S2 | 0.5703 |
| S3 | 0.56948 |
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