AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.2% to 0.62870. Week ending 2025-03-28 rose 0.02%. What happened.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.2%	-12.4 Pips
Week 2025-03-28	0.02%	1 Pips
March	0.92%	57.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 AM Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Tue 04:30 AM RBA Monetary Policy Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Thu 02:30 AM International Trade in Goods (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the University of Michigan reported an increase in the Index of Consumer Expectations to 4.1% in March, up from 3.9% in February. However, the Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased slightly to 57 points from 57.9 points. The Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that the PCE Price Index remained unchanged on a 12-month basis at 2.5% and held steady at 0.3% month-over-month. Despite a slight decrease in personal income to 0.8% from 0.9%, consumer spending rose to 0.4% from a -0.2% decline. Additionally, the PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, increased both annually (2.8% from 2.7%) and monthly (0.4% from 0.3%). Durable goods orders fell by 0.9% in February after a notable rise in January, while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dropped by 0.3%, following a 0.9% rise.

Australia’s economy saw a slight decrease in the Monthly CPI Indicator for February to 2.4% from 2.5%, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Key upcoming events include retail trade turnover and the RBA monetary policy decision, which could significantly influence the economic outlook.

The AUDUSD currency pair experienced volatility, dropping by 0.2% to 0.62870 on Friday, despite a minimal increase of 0.02% over the week. The data suggest relative economic stability in the U.S. with mixed signals in consumer sentiment and inflation, yet upcoming Australian economic indicators and the anticipated RBA decision may prompt shifts in AUD value. If Australia’s data reveals strong economic performance or a favorable monetary policy stance, it may lead to a strengthening of the AUD, potentially increasing the AUDUSD pair. Conversely, robust U.S. labor market data, such as nonfarm payrolls, due later could bolster the USD, leading to potential downward pressure on the AUDUSD rate.

From X (Twitter)

‘Annual CPI inflation was slightly lower in February, after holding steady at 2.5 per cent for the previous two months,’ Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics

For more, see https://t.co/8nClt9HWik pic.twitter.com/Draxlh3wdv

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) March 26, 2025

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.2% to 0.63. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-03-28, the pair rose 0.02% or 1 pips higher.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.63.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.64 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.63. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.63 or 0.62 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.64 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of March, AUDUSD is up by 0.92% or 57.1 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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