GBPUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-03-28 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.07% | -8.7 Pips |  |
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| Week 2025-03-28 | 0.14% | 18.7 Pips | |
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| March | 2.73% | 344.4 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, the University of Michigan reported that the Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 4.1% in March, up from 3.9% in February, whereas the Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 57 points from 57.9 points. The Bureau of Economic Analysis found the PCE Price Index in February remained at 2.5% year-on-year, with a monthly increase steady at 0.3%. Personal income growth decelerated to 0.8% from 0.9%, while consumer spending grew to 0.4% after a negative turn of -0.2% in January. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index increased slightly to 2.8% annually and 0.4% monthly. Durable goods orders fell 0.9%, following a revision of January’s data from 3.1% to 3.2%. Additionally, capital goods orders dropped to -0.3% from 0.9%, while durable goods excluding transportation rose to 0.7%. The U.S. GDP Price Index and related PCE measures saw slight dips or stability over the fourth quarter of 2024.
In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales volumes excluding fuel dropped to 1% in February from 1.6% in January, but over a 12-month period, sales saw a rise to 2.2% from 1%. Despite a drop in retail sales on a month-to-month comparison, GDP growth continued with a slight rise to 1.5% for Q4 on a yearly basis, maintaining a 0.1% quarterly rate. The 12-month RPI decreased to 3.4% from 3.6%, aligning with a dip in Core CPI inflation to 3.5%. The monthly CPI showed recovery to 0.4% from -0.1%. The U.K.’s economic data reflects a mixed pattern of consumer activity and restrained inflation pressures.
Focusing on GBPUSD, the currency pair experienced a slight drop by 0.07% on Friday to 1.29433 yet saw a weekly increase of 0.14%, rebounding from a two-week low. The subdued U.S. PCE data alongside improving U.K. economic indicators concerning retail and GDP might lend support to a stronger pound in the near term. However, upcoming high-impact U.S. events such as the Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Average Hourly Earnings will be crucial in determining the currency pair’s trajectory. A strong nonfarm payroll figure could bolster the U.S. dollar, potentially applying downward pressure on GBPUSD. As markets anticipate these reports, expect volatility and possible fluctuations in the currency pair’s performance.
From X (Twitter)
GDP is estimated is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, unrevised from the first estimate. It has been revised upwards 0.1 pp in each of Q4 2023 to Q2 2024 inclusive.
Read more ➡️ https://t.co/zPMvvOOwA3 pic.twitter.com/uAxQgLAolU
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) March 28, 2025
What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.07% to 1.29. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-03-28, the pair rose 0.14% or 18.7 pips higher.
Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.29.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.30 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.29. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.29 or 1.29 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.30 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of March, GBPUSD is up by 2.73% or 344.4 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.31 |
| R2 | 1.31 |
| R1 | 1.30 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.29 |
| S1 | 1.29 |
| S2 | 1.28 |
| S3 | 1.28 |
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