NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-03-28 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.35% | -19.8 Pips |  |
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| Week 2025-03-28 | -0.5% | -28.8 Pips |  |
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| March | 1.52% | 85.8 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, several key economic indicators displayed varied trends for February and the fourth quarter of 2024. The University of Michigan reported that the Index of Consumer Expectations in the U.S. increased slightly in March, indicating a positive consumer outlook, while the Index of Consumer Sentiment saw a minor decrease. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE Price Index, which gauges inflation pressures, remained stable on a 12-month basis at 2.5% and at 0.3% for monthly measurement. Excluding food and energy, the 12-month and monthly figures for the PCE Price Index rose slightly to 2.8% and 0.4%, respectively, signaling subtle inflationary pressure. Consumer spending picked up at 0.4% following a contraction, whereas personal income showed a slight decline. The GDP Price Index and GDP annual rate showed mixed signals with a decrease in price index but accelerated growth at an annual rate. Unemployment claims were relatively stable with a slight decrease. Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, registered a modest increase, but overall figures for durable goods and specific orders like nondefense capital goods and those excluding defense showed contractions.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been under pressure, resulting in a 0.35% drop on Friday to 0.57166 and a 0.5% decline over the week. This downward momentum in NZDUSD reached a two-week low, marking a second consecutive week of losses. The varied U.S. economic data this week, particularly stable inflation indicators, mixed durable goods orders, and minor fluctuations in consumer confidence, may fuel market speculation about future U.S. monetary policy moves, especially with upcoming high-impact American economic data events such as Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Average Hourly Earnings releases. The anticipation of these events and their potential implications on U.S. policy might contribute to further volatility and downside risk for the NZDUSD pair in the short term. The stronger economic resilience and inflation persistence in the U.S. could weigh against a relatively weaker New Zealand outlook, influencing traders to gravitate more towards the USD, assuming the economic trajectory continues as projected.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: GDP increases 0.7 percent in the December 2024 quarter.https://t.co/iRXPtfg0pI pic.twitter.com/qdtTNmPldp
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) March 19, 2025
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.35% to 0.57. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-03-28, the pair dropped -0.5% or -28.8 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.57.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.57 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.57 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.58 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.57 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of March, NZDUSD is up by 1.52% or 85.8 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.58 |
| R2 | 0.58 |
| R1 | 0.58 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.57 |
| S1 | 0.57 |
| S2 | 0.57 |
| S3 | 0.56 |
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