USDCHF Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-03-28 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.15% | -12.9 Pips |  |
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| Week 2025-03-28 | -0.34% | -29.6 Pips |  |
||
| March | -2.22% | -199.6 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Thu 07:30 AM Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, several economic indicators were released for the period ending March 30, 2025. The Index of Consumer Expectations slightly increased to 4.1% in March, but the Consumer Sentiment decreased to 57 points. The PCE Price Index remained unchanged at 2.5% year-over-year, with a monthly increase consistent at 0.3%. Notably, the PCE Price Index excluding food and energy rose to 2.8% annually and 0.4% monthly. Personal income saw a decrement to 0.8%, although consumer spending grew to 0.4% in February. The GDP annual rate increased slightly to 2.4% in Q4 2024. However, durable goods orders witnessed a decline by 0.9%, with notable decreases in nondefense capital goods and durable goods excluding defense, indicating potential softening in business investment.
In Switzerland, the ZEW Financial Market Survey revealed a significant decline in investor sentiment, dropping to -10.7 points from 3.4 points in February. This suggests a rather pessimistic outlook towards the Swiss financial markets, highlighting domestic economic concerns which may affect investor confidence and influence monetary policy considerations.
The USDCHF currency pair experienced a decline of 0.15% on Friday, concluding the week with a collective drop of 0.34%. The information concerning U.S. economic indicators suggests mixed economic momentum. The decrease in U.S. consumer sentiment and a decline in durable goods orders could weigh on the dollar, but stable PCE indices provide some support. Meanwhile, the considerable decline in Swiss investor sentiment might initially weaken the Swiss Franc. Upcoming high-impact events like the release of Swiss CPI Inflation Rate and key U.S. data such as Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Average Hourly Earnings will be crucial in setting market expectations and could provide directional cues for the USDCHF pair. Given the current cues, any signs of strong U.S. labor conditions could bolster the dollar, while weak sentiment in Swiss markets could further pressure the Franc.
From X (Twitter)
Quarterly Bulletin 1/2025 https://t.co/uVKAQ4WVwe
— Swiss National Bank (@SNB_BNS) March 26, 2025
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.15% to 0.88. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-03-28, the pair dropped -0.34% or -29.6 pips lower.
Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.88 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.88. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.88 or 0.88 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.88 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of March, USDCHF is down by -2.22% or -199.6 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.89 |
| R2 | 0.89 |
| R1 | 0.88 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.88 |
| S1 | 0.88 |
| S2 | 0.88 |
| S3 | 0.87 |
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