USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.67% to 149.83. Week ending 2025-03-28 rose 0.1%. What happened.

USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.67%	-101.7 Pips
Week 252025-03-28	0.1%	15.3 Pips
March	-0.12%	-18.199 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 12:50 AM Tankan Large Manufacturing Index
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, consumer sentiment showed a slight decline as the Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 57 points from 57.9 points. However, the Index of Consumer Expectations saw a marginal rise, moving up to 4.1% from 3.9%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) demonstrated some growth, with Consumer Spending increasing by 0.4% in February after a decline in January. The PCE Price Index remained unchanged at 2.5% on a 12-month basis and steady at 0.3% monthly. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index climbed to 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually. This was slightly offset by a small decrease in Personal Income growth from 0.9% to 0.8%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders fell by 0.9% but increased for orders excluding transportation by 0.7%. The U.S. GDP annual rate slightly improved to 2.4% in Q4 2024, reflecting a stable economic outlook, despite the decrease in house prices and softening capital goods orders.

In Japan, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food and energy rose to 2.4% over the year, up from a previous 2.2%. The overall Tokyo CPI, including all categories, saw a rise to 2.9% in March, compared to a revised 2.8% previously. These figures indicate inflationary trends in Tokyo, signaling increased economic activity and cost pressures. This growth is consistent with Japan’s economic efforts to manage and stimulate its economy. The impending Tankan Large Manufacturing Index will provide further insights into Japan’s industrial sector and economic health.

The USDJPY exchange rate experienced fluctuations throughout the week. After initially rising to a three-week high, it dropped by 0.67% to 149.83000 by Friday. The increase in Tokyo’s CPI suggests rising inflationary pressure in Japan, which could lead to a stronger Yen if the Bank of Japan considers tightening monetary policy. On the other hand, the ongoing improvements in the U.S. GDP rate and consumer spending indicators show strength in the U.S. economy, which could support the USD. Upcoming events like the Tankan Index and U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment will be crucial. Strong U.S. job data could boost the USD, whereas continued inflation in Japan may strengthen the JPY, leaving the USDJPY exposed to a dynamic interplay of these economic variables.

From social media

🇯🇵 In March, the 12-month Tokyo CPI (Inflation Rate) increased to 2.9%, up from a revised figure of 2.8%.https://t.co/xsIBPKchAI

— Market Recap (@forexforum) March 30, 2025

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.67% to 149.83. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending ,2025-03-28, the pair rose 0.1% or 15.3 pips higher. USDJPY hit 3-week high and rose for the third-straight week.

Looking ahead, USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 151.21 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 150.20. On the downside, we are looking at week low 149.55 or 149.19 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 151.21 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of March, USDJPY is down by -0.12% or -18.199 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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