USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | 0.15% | 22.5 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.97% | -145.3 Pips |  |
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| April | -1.17% | -174.899 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment Fri 01:30 PM USD Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, new orders for manufactured goods experienced a decrease in February, dropping to 0.6% from a revised figure of 1.7% for January, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This was mirrored by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which reported a decline in job openings, from 7.74 million in January to 7.568 million in February, suggesting a cooling labor market. These figures point towards a potential softening in the U.S. economic momentum, which could lead to adjustments in fiscal policy by the Federal Reserve if the trend continues to ensure economic stability.
Japan’s economic situation also poses concerns as indicated by recent data. The Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook for the first quarter fell to 12 points, a one-point decrease from the previous quarter, and the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index also dropped to 12 points from 14 points in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, Japan’s Tankan Large All Industry Capex significantly decreased to 3.1% from 11.3% in the prior quarter, highlighting potentially cautious investment sentiments. On a slightly positive note, the unemployment rate in Japan reported a marginal improvement, declining from 2.5% in January to 2.4% in February, suggesting a slight improvement in the job market.
The economic updates from both the United States and Japan can affect the USDJPY exchange rate. The decrease in U.S. manufacturing orders and job openings might suggest a less aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve concerning rate hikes, which could lead to some weakness in the U.S. dollar. However, Japan’s lower manufacturing outlook and capital expenditure suggest an economic slowdown, which might keep the Japanese yen pressured. Hence, the USDJPY might remain relatively stable in the short term as traders await more clear economic signals or further relevant data, such as the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Average Hourly Earnings reports. Observing these factors can help to anticipate future movements, though currently, the USDJPY is in consolidation, with the pair having risen modestly by 0.15% to 149.85.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Wednesday rose 0.15% to 149.85. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 149.67 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 149.89 or trades above daily pivot 149.78. While to the downside, the daily low of 149.60 and 149.67 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 149.89 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.97%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 150.25 |
| R2 | 150.07 |
| R1 | 149.96 |
| Daily Pivot | 149.78 |
| S1 | 149.67 |
| S2 | 149.49 |
| S3 | 149.39 |