The euro rises against the dollar amid mixed economic data in the US and Euro area

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	1.49%	162.4 Pips
Week to-date	2.11%	228.2 Pips
April	2.16%	233.2 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 01:30 PM USD Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
Fri 04:25 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened lately

In the United States, the economic data indicates a mixed performance. For the week ending March 29, initial unemployment insurance claims saw a decrease to 219,000 from the previously adjusted figure of 225,000. This suggests a slight improvement in the labor market. However, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell to 0.6% in February, from a revised January figure of 1.7% (initially 1.8%). This decline in manufacturing orders points to potential weakness in the industrial sector, highlighting potential challenges in economic growth and production in the short term.

In the Euro Area, the Producer Price Index (PPI) displayed divergent trends in February. On a month-to-month basis, the PPI decreased to 0.2%, down substantially from the revised 0.7% in January. This indicates a slowing pace of producer price increases in the near term. However, looking at the annual comparison, the PPI rose to 3% from a revised figure of 1.7% in January, suggesting that, over the year, producers have faced higher input costs. These contrasting trends in producer pricing suggest inconsistencies in pricing pressures across different time frames.

The EUR/USD exchange rate experienced an increase of 1.49% to 1.10521. The rise in EUR/USD could have been supported by the mix of U.S. economic data, suggesting vulnerabilities in manufacturing and a modest improvement in employment, leading investors to anticipate potential dovish adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, the upcoming U.S. events, such as the Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Average Hourly Earnings report, and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, are anticipated with high interest as they might provide further clues on the U.S. economic trajectory and monetary policy direction. These events could potentially induce volatility in the EUR/USD pair based on market expectations and subsequent reactions to these critical data releases and policy indications.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Thursday rose 1.49% to 1.10521. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.11726 with break above could target R2 at 1.12932 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.08795 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.11466 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 2.11% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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