USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -2.24% | -196.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -2.49% | -219 Pips | |
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| April | -2.83% | -250.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment Fri 01:30 PM USD Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth) Fri 04:25 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
What happened lately
In the United States, the latest economic indicators reveal mixed signals. The Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending on March 29 dropped to 219,000 from the previous 225,000, as reported by the Department of Labor. This decline suggests a slight improvement in the labor market, potentially indicating underlying economic resilience. However, contrasting this positive development is the decrease in new orders for manufactured goods for February, which fell to 0.6% from a revised 1.8% in January according to the Census Bureau. This drop signals a slowdown in manufacturing activity, which could imply a weakening in industrial demand.
Turning to Switzerland, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) reported a notable change in inflation metrics. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the one-month period in March stands at 0%, a decrease from the 0.6% recorded in February. Additionally, the 12-month Swiss CPI inflation rate remained consistent at 0.3% in March, the same as February. The steady 12-month inflation rate coupled with a flat monthly rate highlights a state of price stability in the Swiss economy, which may reflect subdued economic activity or minimal demand-side pressures.
Considering the impact on USD/CHF, the combination of these reports could be indicative of a short-term strengthening of the Swiss franc against the dollar. The drop in U.S. manufacturing orders suggests possible economic challenges, which might negatively affect the dollar’s strength. Concurrently, Switzerland’s stable inflation rates could potentially bolster the franc’s attractiveness as a safe-haven currency. With upcoming U.S. events such as Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Average Hourly Earnings, and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the USD may experience further volatility. Investors may closely watch these developments to gauge the trajectory of U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy, which will directly influence the USD/CHF trading pair.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Thursday dropped -2.24% to 0.85895. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.8459 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.83285. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.89000 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.85490 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bearish as the pair posted lower by -2.49%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.9161 |
| R2 | 0.90305 |
| R1 | 0.881 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.86795 |
| S1 | 0.8459 |
| S2 | 0.83285 |
| S3 | 0.8108 |
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