Eurusd falls amid mixed eurozone data and economic sentiment concerns

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	-0.39%	-42.8 Pips
Week to-date	-0.42%	-46.4 Pips
April	0.88%	94.8 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

What happened lately

In the Euro Area, retail trade turnover saw a positive change, increasing by 0.3% in February after a decline of 0.3% in January. Over a year, retail trade turnover rose by 2.3% compared to 1.8% the previous month, indicating a boost in consumer spending. Despite this, the economic sentiment in the Eurozone, as measured by the sentix Economic Index, dropped drastically in April to -19.5 points from -2.9 points in March. This decline suggests increased pessimism about the economic outlook among investors and analysts.

In Germany, the trade balance improved, with a rise to €17.7 billion in February from €16 billion in January, suggesting a stronger export performance. However, this positive indicator was countered by a decline in industrial production. Not seasonally adjusted production fell by 4% in February from -1.6% in January, while seasonally adjusted figures showed a decrease of 1.3% in February after a 2% increase in January. This reduction in industrial output could raise concerns about Germany’s economic health, given its pivotal role in the Eurozone economy.

The mixed economic indicators in the Euro Area and Germany present nuanced impacts on the EURUSD currency pair. The improvement in Euro Area retail trade turnover suggests some level of economic resilience, potentially supporting the euro. However, the sharp drop in the economic sentiment index, along with Germany’s declining industrial production, could weigh on investor confidence in the euro’s strength. Given these factors, the EURUSD pair, which dropped by 0.39% to 1.09137, remains in a state of consolidation. Investors may await the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes for further guidance on U.S. monetary policy, which could heavily influence the pair’s future movements. A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve might provide support for the euro, while a more hawkish position could further pressure the euro against the dollar.

Latest from X (Twitter)

Tweets by Eurostat

What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Monday dropped -0.39% to 1.09137. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.08596 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.10500 or trades above daily pivot 1.09548. Break above could target R1 at 1.10089. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.08596 (S1) and daily low of 1.09007 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.09007 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

#EURUSD Trending on Twitter

[custom-twitter-feeds hashtag=”#EURUSD” num=3 showheader=false]