NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | 0.16% | 8.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.47% | -26.3 Pips |  |
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| April | -2.74% | -155.4 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 03:00 AM NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
What happened lately
In New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence index observed an increase from 16% in Q4 to 19% in Q1. This change reflects an improvement in the outlook from businesses regarding the economic environment over the next quarter. The rise in business confidence may relate to various factors, including fiscal policies, recovery in domestic demand, or positive economic developments. Businesses feeling optimistic could translate into increased investment, hiring, and production, thus sparking a potential upswing in economic activity. As businesses forecast better conditions, this sentiment fosters an environment conducive to growth.
For the United States, significant events this week include the FOMC Meeting Minutes release and the CPI Inflation Rate. The Federal Reserve’s minutes will be scrutinized for insights into future monetary policies and interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, the U.S. CPI rate will provide information on inflationary trends, influencing consumer purchasing power. Both pieces of news play a vital role in shaping market expectations about the U.S. economy’s health and potential Federal Reserve actions.
Considering the NZDUSD currency pair, the recent 0.16% rise to 0.55510 indicates market movement in response to current economic data and expectations. However, the pair remains in consolidation mode, with traders possibly awaiting further clarity from upcoming high-impact events. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision on interest rates will significantly influence NZD’s valuation, as any change or guidance on future monetary policy will likely send ripples through the forex market. Conversely, the U.S. data releases—specifically, the FOMC Meeting Minutes and CPI data—will impact USD movements. Higher-than-expected inflation might lead to a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially strengthening the USD. Thus, while recent economic indicators showcase moderate optimism for New Zealand, upcoming central bank actions and inflation reports are set to define near-term NZDUSD trends. Traders should remain vigilant, as these events are high impact, capable of inducing volatility in currency markets.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Tuesday rose 0.16% to 0.55510. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.55349 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.55560 or trades above daily pivot 0.55454. Break above could target R1 at 0.55616. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.55349 (S1) and daily low of 0.55293 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.55560 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.47%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.55883 |
| R2 | 0.55721 |
| R1 | 0.55616 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.55454 |
| S1 | 0.55349 |
| S2 | 0.55187 |
| S3 | 0.55082 |
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