USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -1.96% | -289.2 Pips |  |
||
| Week to-date | -1.96% | -287.9 Pips |  |
||
| April | -3.91% | -586.3 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement showed a significant improvement in March, recording a deficit of $161 billion compared to the $307 billion in February. This change indicates a reduction in the fiscal shortfall which can be seen as a positive development for the economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate for March has seen a decrease both overall and when excluding the volatile Food and Energy sectors. The overall CPI for the 12-month period dropped to 2.4% from 2.8%, while the core CPI fell to 2.8% from 3.1% in February. This easing in inflationary pressures suggests subdued demand and potentially less aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. However, the labor market data presented mixed signals, with initial unemployment claims slightly rising to 223,000 from the previous week’s 219,000, indicating some instability in employment conditions.
The recent economic data from the U.S. presents a complex picture that could potentially impact the USDJPY currency pair. The reduction in inflation rate might suggest that the U.S. Federal Reserve could take a more dovish stance, which often leads to a depreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar. Consequently, this could weigh down on the USD against the JPY, resulting in downward pressure on the USDJPY pair. The current drop of USDJPY to 144.48 on Thursday reflects market sentiment revolving around these economic indicators, with the pair in a state of consolidation amid mixed signals from different economic fronts. Market participants are likely to focus on the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index data excluding Food and Energy, as a high impact event, for further signals on the direction of inflation and monetary policy, which could in turn affect the trajectory of the USDJPY pair.
Latest from X (Twitter)
What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Thursday dropped -1.96% to 144.48. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 143.08 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 147.71 or trades above daily pivot 145.4. While to the downside, the daily low of 144.00 and 143.08 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 144.00 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is bearish as the pair posted lower by -1.96%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 150.5 |
| R2 | 149.1 |
| R1 | 146.79 |
| Daily Pivot | 145.4 |
| S1 | 143.08 |
| S2 | 141.69 |
| S3 | 139.38 |