Audusd sees slight rise amid market consolidation; key US and Australia data awaited

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	0.23%	14.6 Pips
Week to-date	0.7%	44 Pips
April	1.36%	84.9 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Thu 02:30 AM AUD Labour Force Monthly Employment Change

What happened lately

The latest data from the United States indicates an improvement in the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which rose to -8.1 points in April from the previous -20 points in March. This improvement suggests a moderation in the contraction of the manufacturing sector in New York, implying that businesses are finding some relief compared to the previous month. While the index is still negative, indicating contraction, the less severe figure in April could point towards a gradual stabilization, possibly signaling better conditions for the near future if the trend continues. Additionally, upcoming impactful data to look for from the U.S. includes the monthly retail trade figures, which are due out soon. These are significant as they provide insights into consumer spending, a crucial driver of economic growth.

Turning attention to Australia, the economic focus will soon shift to the labor market, with the highly anticipated labour force monthly employment change figures expected to be released in the coming days. Employment data is pivotal as it reflects the economic health and consumer spending capabilities. A strong employment change reading could indicate a robust economy, contributing to potential currency strength.

In the currency markets, the Australian dollar has seen a slight rise against the U.S. dollar, up 0.23% to 0.63334. This movement indicates a temporary preference for AUD on Tuesday, but the pair remains in consolidation, suggesting that traders are waiting for more significant developments or data releases to reassess their positions. The upcoming events, particularly the U.S. retail trade figures and Australia’s employment data, are likely to bring volatility to the AUDUSD currency pair. A strong U.S. retail report could bolster the USD as it points towards consumer resilience, while positive Australian employment figures could provide the AUD with upward momentum. Traders should remain cautious and stay tuned for these crucial data releases, as they could set the direction for the AUDUSD pair in the coming days.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Tuesday rose 0.23% to 0.63334. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.63048 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.63831 or trades above daily pivot 0.6344. Break above could target R1 at 0.63725. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.63048 (S1) and daily low of 0.63154 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.63831 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.7% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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