Nzdusd gains amid mixed economic signals from us and new zealand

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	0.38%	22.5 Pips
Week to-date	1.12%	65 Pips
April	3.74%	212.2 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 11:45 PM NZD CPI Inflation Rate (3-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index showed an improvement in April, advancing to -8.1 points from -20 points in March, as per the data released by the New York Fed. This upward movement indicates a less negative outlook compared to the previous month, suggesting a modest recovery in manufacturing activities in the New York region. Such an improvement in manufacturing activity can be attributed to factors such as supply chain stabilization or improved domestic and international demand. While the index remains in negative territory, indicating contraction, the less severe decline is a positive sign, possibly reflecting better economic conditions or sentiment. Upcoming high-impact events in the U.S. include the release of the Monthly Retail Trade figures, which could further influence market perceptions of the U.S. economic health.

In New Zealand, a notable economic event on the horizon is the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate for the quarter. This high-impact event will provide insights into the inflationary pressures within the New Zealand economy, which is a critical factor for monetary policy decisions. Depending on the inflation rate, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might adjust its policy stance to ensure price stability.

Regarding the NZDUSD currency pair, it recorded a rise of 0.38% to 0.58899 on Tuesday. This movement indicates a phase of consolidation for the pair, as it likely reflects market reactions to the modest improvement in U.S. manufacturing data and anticipations around upcoming releases. The potential market impacts of the upcoming U.S. retail trade data and New Zealand’s CPI can be significant. If the U.S. retail data reflects robust consumer spending, it could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar due to expectations of economic resilience. Conversely, if New Zealand’s CPI shows higher-than-expected inflation, it might bolster the NZD, as expectations of rate hikes by the RBNZ could come into play. Traders and investors will closely watch these releases, and any surprise in the data could lead to volatility in the NZDUSD pair as market participants adjust their positions based on new economic information.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Tuesday rose 0.38% to 0.58899. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.58524 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.59440 or trades above daily pivot 0.58982. Break above could target R1 at 0.59357. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.58524 (S1) and daily low of 0.58607 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.59440 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.12% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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