Gbpusd rises slightly amid mixed economic signals in the US and UK

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.15%	19.3 Pips
Week to-date	1.14%	149 Pips
April	2.47%	318.4 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In the United States, March saw mixed results in retail trade data. The Monthly Retail Trade excluding Automobile experienced a slight decline to 0.5% from a revised 0.7% in February. However, overall Monthly Retail Trade saw a significant increase to 1.4%, up from 0.2% in February, as reported by the Census Bureau. Meanwhile, the Retail Trade Control Group witnessed a drop to 0.4%, down from a revised 1.3% in February. Additionally, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index showed improvement in April, rising to -8.1 points from -20 points in March, indicating some recovery in the manufacturing sector.

In the United Kingdom, the economic data reflected notable changes. The Retail Price Index for March decreased to 0.3% from February’s 0.6%, while the 12-month inflation rate for the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) lowered to 2.6% from 2.8% in February, indicating a slight shrinking inflationary pressure. The Core CPI over 12 months also saw a marginal decrease to 3.4% in March from 3.5% in February. The labor market remained stable with the ILO Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.4% for the three-month period ending in February. The Labour Force Survey Employment Change saw an increase to 206K in February from 144K in January. Average Earnings both including and excluding bonuses continued to show robust growth, with earnings excluding bonuses increasing to 5.9%. The U.K.’s Claimant Count Change showed significant improvement, decreasing to 18.7K in March from 44.2K in February.

The GBPUSD currency pair has historically been influenced by economic data and developments in the U.S. and the U.K., and the latest data could have a mixed impact. While the improvement in U.S. retail trade numbers might bolster the U.S. dollar, the strengthening labor market and moderating inflation in the U.K. could support the British pound, providing some upward pressure on the GBPUSD pair. However, given the overall mixed economic signals and no major events for the day, the pair is likely to remain in consolidation, as suggested by its recent 0.15% rise to 1.32415. Investors may continue to watch for any further economic indicators or geopolitical developments that might influence the exchange rate.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Wednesday rose 0.15% to 1.32415. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.32048 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.32921 or trades above daily pivot 1.32484. Break above could target R1 at 1.32852. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.32048 (S1) and daily low of 1.32117 as support levels. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.32921 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.14% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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