USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.13% | -18 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.19% | -26 Pips |  |
||
| April | -3.8% | -546.7 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In the United States, several economic indicators have been updated recently. The Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims decreased to 215,000 in the week ending April 12, suggesting a slight improvement in the labor market. Despite this, U.S. Housing Starts in March fell to 1.324 million from 1.501 million in February, indicating a slowdown in new home constructions. Conversely, Building Permits for March showed an increase, rising to 1.482 million, which may suggest future growth in the housing sector. The U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reflected a sharp decline, with the index plummeting from 12.5 points in March to -26.4 points in April, highlighting challenges in the manufacturing sector. Retail data showed mixed results: While Monthly Retail Trade increased to 1.4% in March from 0.2% in February, Retail Trade excluding Automobiles decreased, and the Retail Trade Control Group saw a decline, suggesting inconsistencies in consumer spending.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada held its Policy Interest Rate steady at 2.75%, aligning with market expectations. By maintaining the existing rates, the central bank may be signaling stability in its monetary policy.
The recent movements in the USDCAD can be influenced by these economic developments. The marginal drop in USDCAD on Thursday suggests a slight strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, possibly due to the stable Canadian interest rates and mixed U.S. economic data. While the drop in unemployment claims and the rise in building permits could be seen positively, the decline in housing starts, manufacturing outlook, and some retail components may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. These factors, combined with unchanged Canadian monetary policy, can result in incremental shifts in the currency pair, contributing to the observed drop in USDCAD. Future movements will depend on additional economic data and market reactions.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Thursday dropped -0.13% to 1.38400. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.38073 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.37747. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.39060 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.38240 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.39713 |
| R2 | 1.39387 |
| R1 | 1.38893 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.38567 |
| S1 | 1.38073 |
| S2 | 1.37747 |
| S3 | 1.37253 |
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