USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.35% | -28.8 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 1.53% | 124.9 Pips |  |
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| April | -6.3% | -557 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
The U.S. economy experienced a mixed bag of data points recently. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose slightly to 222,000, up from a revised 216,000, indicating some softening in the labor market. On the other hand, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft showed a marginal increase of 0.1% in March, recovering from a revised decline of -0.2% in February, reflecting a mild improvement in business investments. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation remained steady at 0% in March, a decrease from the previous increase of 0.7% in February, indicating potential stabilization but lack of significant growth in this sector.
Meanwhile, new orders for Durable Goods surged dramatically by 9.2% in March, coming off a revised 1% in February, with orders excluding Defense items spiking by 10.4%, up from 0.8% in the prior month. This may suggest robust demand and business confidence in sectors excluding defense, signaling optimism about future economic prospects. The new home sales growth further embodied this optimism, rising by 7.4% in March compared to 1.8% in February, signifying a strengthening housing market and possibly higher consumer confidence.
Regarding the USDCHF currency pair, which fell by 0.35% to 0.82617, this blend of U.S. economic data presents both positive and negative elements. The uptick in unemployment claims might portray slight concerns over employment but appears overshadowed by stronger-than-expected durable goods orders and housing market strength, reflecting underlying economic resilience. The contradiction between rising unemployment claims and strong orders may illustrate investor uncertainty and contribute to currency movement. The fall in the USDCHF exchange rate may reflect market consolidation and anticipation of future data to confirm the underlying economic direction. However, without any major upcoming U.S. economic releases, USDCHF’s movement may remain more influenced by broader market sentiment and general risk appetite, potentially stabilizing the pair in the short-term unless new data alters market perception significantly.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Thursday dropped -0.35% to 0.82617. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.82331 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.83021 or trades above daily pivot 0.82676. Break above could target R1 at 0.82962. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.82331 (S1) and daily low of 0.82390 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.82390 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.53% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.83593 |
| R2 | 0.83307 |
| R1 | 0.82962 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.82676 |
| S1 | 0.82331 |
| S2 | 0.82045 |
| S3 | 0.817 |
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