Eurusb sees slight decline amid mixed euro area economic data

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	-0.03%	-3.5 Pips
Week to-date	0.47%	52.8 Pips
May	0.2%	22.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In March 2025, the Euro Area experienced a modest setback in retail trade turnover, with a 1-month decline to -0.1% from a revised 0.2% in February and a 12-month decrease to 1.5% from a revised figure of 1.9%. Additionally, the Euro Area’s Producer Price Index for the same month saw a notable decrease, dropping to 1.9% from 3% year-over-year, and declining by 1.6% compared to the previous month’s modest increase of 0.2%. This decline indicates potential deflationary pressures, which can have adverse effects on economic activity and encourage monetary policy easing.

Germany’s manufacturing sector signaled a positive turnaround in March 2025. New orders in the sector rose by 3.8% year-over-year, a significant improvement from the -0.2% recorded in February. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new manufacturing orders showed an increase of 3.6%, a stark contrast to the stagnant 0% in the preceding month. These figures reflect a strengthening in Germany’s industrial activity, positively contributing to the overall Euro Area economy.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate at 4.5% in its latest decision, signaling stability in U.S. monetary policy. This decision reflects the Fed’s wait-and-see approach amidst evolving economic conditions, potentially aimed at balancing growth and inflationary challenges.

The Euro’s recent economic data presented a mixed picture, with strengthening in Germany’s manufacturing orders but weaker retail and producer price indices in the broader Euro Area. These developments may exert downward pressure on the Euro as investors might interpret the retail and PPI figures as increasing the likelihood of a dovish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB). Consequently, the EURUSD pair is likely to face consolidation pressures, as indicated by the pair’s slight drop by -0.03% to 1.13680. With no major events present, market participants may closely monitor developments in economic indicators and policy statements from both the Fed and ECB to gauge future currency movements.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Wednesday dropped -0.03% to 1.13680. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.13358 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.13782 or trades above daily pivot 1.1357. Break above could target R1 at 1.13892. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.13358 (S1) and daily low of 1.13248 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.13248 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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