Usdchf rises 0.32% as U.S. inflation shows mixed signals

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.32%	26.7 Pips
Week to-date	1.2%	99.9 Pips
May	1.91%	157.2 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Thu 01:40 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

What happened lately

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12-month period ending in April 2025 saw a slight decrease from the previous month, dropping to 2.3% from March’s 2.4%, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Month-on-month, the CPI inflation rate showed a positive upturn, climbing to 0.2% in April from a decrease of -0.1% noted in March 2025. When breaking down the components of the CPI, the rate excluding the volatile food and energy sectors saw a modest increase to 0.2% in April compared to 0.1% in March. However, on an annual basis, this core inflation rate remained stable at 2.8%, mirroring the prior month’s statistics. This mixture of slight monthly gains alongside a consistent annual core rate indicates moderate inflationary pressures without a significant immediate upward trajectory.

The recent fluctuation in the U.S. inflation data may have an impact on the USD/CHF currency pair, which is observed to have risen by 0.32% to 0.84150. This consolidation in the pair can be attributed to the mixed inflation signals, where an increase in the monthly CPI, alongside stable core inflation, hints at controlled inflationary pressures. Couple these present indicators with upcoming high-impact events, such as the PPI excluding food and energy sectors, the monthly retail trade figures, and a key address by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, there remains potential for further volatility in the pair. Market participants will be keenly observing how these upcoming events, particularly policy signals from Powell, might influence future monetary policy, affecting the demand and valuation of the USD against the CHF. Any indications of increased rate hikes could bolster the USD, leading to further appreciation against the CHF. Conversely, dovish signals could see some retracement in the USD/CHF pair, highlighting its sensitivity to ongoing economic interpretations and fiscal expectations.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Wednesday rose 0.32% to 0.84150. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.83474 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.84357 or trades above daily pivot 0.83916. Break above could target R1 at 0.84591. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.83474 (S1) and daily low of 0.83240 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.84357 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.2% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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